Updated Simulator June 17

From Javier...

So now that each team has played at least one game it is time to update the Simulator.

The first step is in the worksheet 'Group Stages': put in the results to date in the right input boxes reserved for scores.

The second step is to back to worksheet 'Setup' and hit the "Run Simulator" button. Now in the Simulator dialog box the key thing to remember is to check the box next to "Keep User Input Scores in the Model". This will keep the scores to date when the simulation is run and will not overwrite them.

What we have also done is to run the Simulator on 50% Model weighting and 50% User Input. And we have updated the User Team Weightings to reflect our subjective estimates of the strength of each team after having seen them play.

Below is the results of the Simulator with updated estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Compare this to out previous blog entry of Results of a 9999 Iteration Run to be able to observe the impact on estimated probabilities of games to date and user inputs.




South Africa now is estimated to have very low chances of making it to the second round after last night's match. Uruguay on the other hand has high chances (have increased to 86% from Simulator's previous estimate of 44%).

Spain, in spite of our generosity in the user inputs, has taken a considerable beating in probabilities both to pass to second round and to win the World Cup. This is just a reflection that last night's result has put Spain in harm's way of random/adverse events in the next two games; it is on precipice and does not have room for error. Switzerland has improved dramatically its chances of going to the second round and even of winning the World Cup (still low, but at 1.6% much higher than the previous estimate of 0.4%).

Greece suffers a dramatic drop in probabilities of success (15% chance of passing versus previous estimate of 64.5%), while Slovenia (now 47% from 16%), Japan (now 53% from 17%) and Korea Republic (now 63% from 18%) have increased considerably their chances of making it to second round.

Germany, Netherlands and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup have been revised upwards, with Germany now the second most probable team to win after Brazil.

Also to note is that the model gives a Brazil - Spain cross in the first round of the playoff stages a 30.7% estimate (use the "Analysis of Heads to Heads" utility within the Simulator dialog box to check this out).

Please update the results in your Simulators and use your own inputs.