And We're Off

From Sukhdev:

Great first day. Opening games are always going to be cagey, so I'm not surprised by the lack of goals. Our model didn't do too well, but the game is about small differences. For instance, France should have scored early on through Govou, and the most likely score according to the model may have come to pass. But that really is an excuse!

Anyway, to today's games. The first is Greece vs Korea Republic. Our model gives a Greece win the highest probability with 56.1% followed by a draw with 28.1% and a Korea win with 15.8%. Personally, I think Korea have a better chance than the model stipulates. A quick team and organisationally sound, they may overcome a usually negative Greek team. The score predictions are as follows:

















The next game between Argentina and Nigeria looks great. Looking forward to seeing how Maradona's front line takes to the pitch. They should be great to watch. For their sake though, hopefully their back line holds solid. The model is firmly in favour of an Argentina win with 62.2% probability, a draw at 26.0% and a Nigeria win at 11.8%. The scores look like as follows:

















And to the final game, England vs USA. Finally, we get to see how Capello will line up England. Little pressure on USA, and they have some very useful players. We know about Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan from the premiership. Should be a good constant, but I can see England taking this one. The model agrees giving England a 69.3% chance. However, the model thinks USA is more likely to win than a draw occuring with a 17.6% vs 13.1% chance. The scores look as follows:

















Have fun watching the games today!