From Javier....
Wow. This is why football is the greatest sport in the world. Yesterday we had two games. On paper the most attractive game was the Brazil - Netherlands, which turned out to have a dramatic outcome when Netherlands upset the Brazilians 2-1. This would have been the focus of today's blog entry under normal circumstances.
But the circumstances were not normal. Uruguay - Ghana was the stuff of World Cup magic, one of those dramas that will reverberate throughout history. Time will tell if it will make the World Cup Mythical Game list. A Hollywood scriptwriter could not have come up with a plot with more twists, heros and anti-heroes than in this match.
This was the script: An African nation, with one billion people behind it, plays a small South American nation in the quarterfinals of the first World Cup celebrated on African soil. The African nation scores in the last minute of the first half and is outplaying formidably the other team. In the second half the South American nation scores from a twisting strike from a set piece and the game goes to extra-time.
Then the scriptwriter goes crazy. In the last minute of extra-time the African nation has an incredible chance and one of the other team's players (their star striker to boot) first deflects a ball out from the goal line with his feet, and then in second instance with his hands in a goalkeeper-like save. The referee sees the save, shows a red card to the South American player and signals penalty......... and the penalty kick hits the cross bar. Off to penalty shootout. The African nation misses twice, the South American once, and in the decisive penalty kick a "crazy" South American player tries out a Panenka penalty and puts it in. Note to scripwriter: Please try to keep a plausible storyline.
All of the above happened in yesterday's game and more. Some notes on the drama:
(1) The tragic hero. Suarez, the Uruguayan striker, saved his team in the last minute of play with an historical interception on the goal line (actually is was a pretty good save that would make a goalkeeper proud). He was shown justly a direct red card and will not be able to play the next game. But his ultimate sacrifice allowed Uruguay the chance to win the penalty shootout.
(2) The goalkeeper. The Uruguayan goalkeeper was full of confidence and menacing during the shootout. He stopped two penalties. I think the Uruguayans must have trained on the penalties very hard.
(3) The "crazy" hero. Abreu is nicknamed el "loco" in Spanish, that means "crazy". I hope the reader comprehends the cold blood that is required for a player in such a dramatic moment like the decisive penalty of the quarterfinals of a World Cup to try out a Panenka penalty. What is a "Panenka" penalty? The two following YouTube links will show you the original Panenka penalty by the Czech player of that name in a European Championship final and the effort that Zidane did in the 2006 World Cup final that almost missed.
(4) The tragic anti-hero. Gyan missed an historical chance to enter the history books my missing the last minute penalty. Some players never get over this. I hope he can.
What about today's games? Simulator probabilities are below:
I think this is the most equal estimated probabilities of the Simulator ever for a match-up. Another historical game. Memories of World Cup finals 1986, 1990 and quarterfinal 2006 are rekindled.
Cannot be objective here. Never has Spain had a better chance of beating its no-semifinal curse. The Paraguayans will play to keep this at 0-0. I hope Spain shows better effectiveness today. It looks like Torres is starting. Still do not understand why coaches line up non-fit players. Why don't they keep unfit star players on the bench like W. Germany did in 1986 with Rummenigge, to bring them out in the second half to turn around difficult situations.
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