Showing posts with label World Cup History. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Cup History. Show all posts

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Classic Spanish Commentary

From Javier....

Every historical World Cup moment needs a classic commentary behind it. For England 1966 it is "..they think it is all over.....it is now". For Maradona's goal of 1986 against England (the legal goal) its Hugo Morales classic commentary with references to "....barrilete cosmico"....

For Iniesta's World Cup final goal, hands down the commentary that will be associated is Spanish National Radio:

Spanish National Radio Iniesta Goal

Script:

Goooooooooool!

Goooooooooool de Iniesta!

Goooooooooooool de España!

Gol de España! Gol de Iniesta! x7

Este gol puede valer un Mundial x 2 (this goal can be worth a World Cup)

Ha marcado Iniesta! (Iniesta scored)

Don Andres! Don Andres! Don Andres!

Ha marcado Iniesta! x4

Quedan dos y medio para llegar al final de la prorroga (two and a half left to end extra-time)

Ha marcado Iniesta! x2

España va a ser campeona del Mundo (Spain is going to be World Champion)

Ha marcado Iniesta!

Te quiero mucho Andres! Te quiero mucho! x3 (I love you Andres)

Viva Andres! Viva España!

Ha marcado Iniesta! Ha marcado España!

Monday, July 12, 2010

Spain World Cup Champion

From Javier...

What can I say. I thought it would be very difficult that Spain would ever be World Cup champion. And here the team has made us champions before I am even 40. And not only has Spain won, but it has also created a unique football style that fans can recognise as truly Spanish.

We started this blog as a showcase for Monte Carlo Simulation. But we continuously have highlighted the importance of psychology and mental strength in football, away from tactics or skills. I was again very impressed yesterday with the Spanish team. The Dutch took the lessons of Spain's games against Switzerland, Chile and Paraguay and took them to a different level: interrupt play continuously, apply strong tackles to destabilise, intimidate and provoke the Spaniards, force Spain to commit mistakes. The Spanish players maintained their composure remarkably well in face of what the British press today defines as "thug football". The karate kick on Xabi Alonso is front page on the Times supplement today.

I understand the Dutch tactics and the rationale for them. But the Dutch also have to understand that Dutch football's image has taken a formidable beating, the romantic 74 team has been superseded by the ice hockey players of '10. Johann Cruyf must be very mad today. Probably the Dutch mistake was not to start pressure further up field (like Chile did so effectively against Spain) and to incur in unnecessary rough play that tested the referee's patience. And of course The Netherlands missed some very good chances.

I saw the game surrounded by a large contingent of political family, my wife, my four young daughters and my mother. I missed my dear father who passed away last year and would have loved so much to see Spain crowned champion. When Iniesta scored the goal the release of tension and sense of relief was overwhelming. Four grown-up men spent a minute hugging and jumping in front of the TV.

So never again will we have to endure that "Spain are perennial underachievers". For the future I hope team Spain does not become a parody of itself and tries to take the "tiki-taka" and passing football too far. We cannot forget that the semifinal against Germany was won with a classic English-style header by a defense on a corner kick. We cannot forget the wake-up call given to us by Switzerland in the first game and confuse possession with winning. At the same time, who would have guessed that even with our star striker (who adds Northern European style definition to the passing game) in very poor form that Spain would still make it.

Team Spain is an example of humility, hard work, teamwork and cool headedness. Great example for Spain's young and not-so-young. Hopefully the country's politicians will learn from the national side composed of a variety of regions and will start to exhibit the same attributes.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

History, Panenka & July 3 Games

From Javier....

Wow. This is why football is the greatest sport in the world. Yesterday we had two games. On paper the most attractive game was the Brazil - Netherlands, which turned out to have a dramatic outcome when Netherlands upset the Brazilians 2-1. This would have been the focus of today's blog entry under normal circumstances.
But the circumstances were not normal. Uruguay - Ghana was the stuff of World Cup magic, one of those dramas that will reverberate throughout history. Time will tell if it will make the World Cup Mythical Game list. A Hollywood scriptwriter could not have come up with a plot with more twists, heros and anti-heroes than in this match.

This was the script: An African nation, with one billion people behind it, plays a small South American nation in the quarterfinals of the first World Cup celebrated on African soil. The African nation scores in the last minute of the first half and is outplaying formidably the other team. In the second half the South American nation scores from a twisting strike from a set piece and the game goes to extra-time.

Then the scriptwriter goes crazy. In the last minute of extra-time the African nation has an incredible chance and one of the other team's players (their star striker to boot) first deflects a ball out from the goal line with his feet, and then in second instance with his hands in a goalkeeper-like save. The referee sees the save, shows a red card to the South American player and signals penalty......... and the penalty kick hits the cross bar. Off to penalty shootout. The African nation misses twice, the South American once, and in the decisive penalty kick a "crazy" South American player tries out a Panenka penalty and puts it in. Note to scripwriter: Please try to keep a plausible storyline.

All of the above happened in yesterday's game and more. Some notes on the drama:

(1) The tragic hero. Suarez, the Uruguayan striker, saved his team in the last minute of play with an historical interception on the goal line (actually is was a pretty good save that would make a goalkeeper proud). He was shown justly a direct red card and will not be able to play the next game. But his ultimate sacrifice allowed Uruguay the chance to win the penalty shootout.



(2) The goalkeeper. The Uruguayan goalkeeper was full of confidence and menacing during the shootout. He stopped two penalties. I think the Uruguayans must have trained on the penalties very hard.

(3) The "crazy" hero. Abreu is nicknamed el "loco" in Spanish, that means "crazy". I hope the reader comprehends the cold blood that is required for a player in such a dramatic moment like the decisive penalty of the quarterfinals of a World Cup to try out a Panenka penalty. What is a "Panenka" penalty? The two following YouTube links will show you the original Panenka penalty by the Czech player of that name in a European Championship final and the effort that Zidane did in the 2006 World Cup final that almost missed.

YouTubeOriginalPanenkaPenalty still the original is the most beautiful one

(4) The tragic anti-hero. Gyan missed an historical chance to enter the history books my missing the last minute penalty. Some players never get over this. I hope he can.

What about today's games? Simulator probabilities are below:


I think this is the most equal estimated probabilities of the Simulator ever for a match-up. Another historical game. Memories of World Cup finals 1986, 1990 and quarterfinal 2006 are rekindled.



Cannot be objective here. Never has Spain had a better chance of beating its no-semifinal curse. The Paraguayans will play to keep this at 0-0. I hope Spain shows better effectiveness today. It looks like Torres is starting. Still do not understand why coaches line up non-fit players. Why don't they keep unfit star players on the bench like W. Germany did in 1986 with Rummenigge, to bring them out in the second half to turn around difficult situations.

Monday, June 28, 2010

World Cup's Day of Infamy

From Javier...
Second day of playoff games in World Cup are a day of scandal. In the England - Germany game, the Uruguayan linesman incredibly did not see what everybody else in the stadium could see: a Lampard strike hit the bar and bounced at least a foot inside the German goal. That would have been 2-2 and the game could have been very different from that moment on. No doubt that the English were incredibly damaged by this decision.



German goalkeeper suspended in air as he sees the ball crashing deep within the German goal.


In the Argentina - Mexico game, the first goal was preceded by a one yard offside by Tevez. Again the linesman error had a great influence on the game's result.




Certainly the debate over the next few days will center around the use of technology to avoid these refereeing disasters. FIFA will be under great pressure. The referees in the coming games are going to be very nervous and this can lead to more errors.

Friday, June 25, 2010

World Cup Upsets

From Javier...

We have updated our World Cup historical upsets to reflect yesterday's games.

Welcome USA to the Beautiful Game

From Javier....

It looks like the United States if finally "getting it"...... why the rest of the world loves football. In spite of some skeptics (see below), watching the reaction of home front USA fans on YouTube there is no doubt the yanks have arrived to stay. Enjoy this, because football is cruel and disappointments are more numerous than satisfactions (I should know, I am Spanish).

America's Love Affair Grows

Soccer coverage in USA

Soccer will never be dominant sport

Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Las Vegas

Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Nebraska

Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Texas

Monday, June 14, 2010

World Cup Goal Statistics

From Javier....

The key ingredient of football is the goal. Not just actual goals by themselves, but also play and tactics oriented towards goals, which create the game tension that make football such an attractive sport. Which is why the statistics detailed in the table below are a cause of concern.



The table shows average goals per game for all World Cup tournaments since 1966. The columns show goals for the overall tournament and the split of average goals per game for the first round and second round.

The average goals per game in each tournament have been calculated excluding the game with most goals in both the first and second round, in order to exclude somewhat the impact of outlier results.

The table shows that average goals decreased steadily up to the World Cup 1990, that marked the nadir in terms of goal effectiveness.

From the 1990 World Cup FIFA has modified rules in order to favour offensive play. In World Cup 1994 for the first time in group stages 3 points were awarded for the winning team (draw continued to be 1 point each team). This incentives teams to win rather than conform with a draw.

Another key change was prohibiting the goalkeeper picking up with his hand passes from his field players, which reduced timewasting and made defensive tactics less attractive.

An important change was a drive to punish violent play and to limit the ability of defenders to intimidate offensive players. Check our previous blog on the statistics of World Cup disciplinary actions.

It seemed that the rule changes reversed the downward trend in goal scoring. But in World Cups 2002 and 2006 the goal average is again drifting downward. And this is not caused by the first round games, where goal scoring has remained close to historical averages, but rather by the second round games which have seen a dearth of goal effectiveness.

What is the reason for this worrying trend? The 3 points up for grabs in the first round together with the pairings of strong teams with weaker teams could help explain why the first round maintains goal averages, but I have no neat explanation for the drought in second round games (where by the way the extra-times should lead to more goals, not less). Please let us know your thoughts.

I bet FIFA is watching this trend carefully and will implement necessary changes if confirmed. More goals mean more attractive football which eventually means more revenues for Football. A radical suggestion would be to expand moderately the size of the goal (goalkeepers will hate this).

But changes have to be thought our very carefully. I remember an experiment in a friendly match in Spain where the off-side rule was modified with no off-side penalised until deep into the opponent's half. The result was awful, a kind of Australian Rules Football, but repugnant to football fans.

Let us hope that this World Cup is productive in terms of goals, both quantity and quality.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Protect the flair players – Please!

From Sukhdev

We may see fewer sendings off this World Cup. That goes against the grain considering the last few World Cups, but 2006 was a bumper year for disciplinary action and considering there were only three red cards in Euro 2008, I think the tide has changed somewhat. Also, from the table below, we can see that yellow cards have consistently increased, but red cards demonstrate an alternating behaviour.



Also, I hope to see an end to red cards given to players who react to abuse from other players. If a player reacts, fine, they should be punished. But if another player has been constantly fouling, pushing and harassing that player, then the bruiser needs to be dealt with more firmly. Intimidation can put off the flair players, and those are the players I want to see. I don’t want to see Ronaldo or Messi brought down mid-flight. They also shouldn’t have to deal with the little annoying fouls that are engineered purely to put them off their play.

On the other hand, great players have to respect the referee and his decisions. Recently England played Platinum Stars and Rooney saw yellow, but the referee said it should have been red considering his foul mouthed outburst. This is where no amount of modelling can help you work out the probability of a win for a certain team. The explosive nature of some players can work to a team’s advantage, but could be a huge liability.

In 2006, we saw Rooney sent off against Portugal after stamping on defender Ricardo Carvalho. It seems he has not learnt his lesson still, but Rio Ferdinand has been keen to relay through the media that he has grown since that experience. Watching him week in, week out in the premiership, I would beg to differ. He is always vocal, and sometimes I feel his position as England’s greatest hope stops him getting booked more. It’s great to have passion, but his disrespectfulness may yet be England’s downfall.

In that same World Cup, we saw one of the world greatest players, Zinedine Zidane, sent off in the World Cup final. What did Materazzi say to him? I’ve heard various things, as I am sure everyone has. I’m an Everton fan, so I got to see Materazzi close up for a season. He was sent off four times in that season. Not exactly an angel. Also, having played against Italian teams on tours, I know they put in niggling little fouls, and constantly try to annoy you with comments. The worst thing is the girly pinching they seem to delight in during corners. Referees never seem to see these things. Now there are four officials, and FIFA/UEFA are trying to introduce another couple. It doesn’t seem to help, as players still seem to get away with murder. More needs to be done to protect the flair players!

Thursday, June 3, 2010

World Cup Reminiscences of a Middle Aged Spaniard

From Javier

As Sukhdev mentioned in the last blog entry I am a Spaniard. I am a middle aged Spaniard, so together with others of my generation I receive the World Cup with a mixture of hope and dread. Why dread, after Spain won the EuroCup 2008? Doesn't that mean that our jinx is finally over? Well, as Sukhdev pointed out I definitely do not want to tempt fate.

The history of Spain's participation in World Cups has been one of perennial disappointments. Always a favourite but never managing to make it to the semi-finals. And we have never "killed a giant" in the World Cup (Germany, Italy, France, Argentina) in living memory. Below is a summary of Spain's World Cup participations since 1982. Although Spain has qualified for every World Cup since 1978, the World Cup of Argentina 1978 caught me too young to remember (which is great because Spain crashed out in first round).

World Cup 1982
This World Cup was played in Spain (the only one ever held in Spain). We had everything in our favour, referees and public passion. We even beat England in a friendly at Wembley in the run-up to the tournament. What actually happened on the pitch was such an unmitigated disaster that it damaged Spanish football permanently, undermining the confidence of future generations of players and fans. By the way, the World Cup 1982 is something that is not mentioned in Spain, an act of national shame that we have all collectively decided to keep under the rug.
First round:
Spain 1, Honduras 1. Honduras scored first, Spain tied with a dubious penalty.

Spain 2, Yugoslavia 1. Yugoslavia scored first. Spain tied from an nonexistent penalty that the referee allowed to take twice because the Yugoslav goalkeeper moved. Then Spain finally scored the winner.

Spain 0, Northern Ireland 1. The embarrassment of a lifetime. The Peruvian referee did his best with a scandalous red card to a Northern Ireland player. Watch the YouTube link below. Arconada, what were you thinking?
YouTube Spain - Northern Ireland 1982

Second round. Yes in spite of the above we managed to go to the second round to play W. Germany and England in a three-team round robin format that was never tried again in World Cup tournaments.
W.Germany 2, Spain 1. Expected result.

Spain 0, England 0. Spain played this game already knowing it was out of the World Cup. Only consolation was that this result meant England was also out of the World Cup.


World Cup 1986
After the disaster of 1982, this World Cup in Mexico actually turned out to be a relief. The Spanish team had some up and coming players that were quite good (Butragueño, Michel).

First round:
Spain 0, Brazil 1. Spain played a good game and Michel scored a phantom goal that the referee missed out. But the Brazilians finally won the game with a goal from Socrates.
YouTube Spain Brazil 1986.

Spain 2, Northern Ireland 1. Rectification of 1982 disaster.

Spain 3, Algeria 0.

Second round:
Spain 5, Denmark 1. Probably the most satisfying memory. Spain was underdog against a very strong Denmark but in this game turned the tables completely around. The Danish defence gave away the first goal. Butragueño scored four goals in the game.
YouTube Spain Denmark 1986

Spain 1, Belgium 1. On this day that coincided with general elections (Socialists won second elections in a row) Spain was eliminated on penalties. Belgium scored in first half and Spain tied late in the second half. Spain played well and deserved better, this was very unlucky. A Spain - Argentina semifinal with a Spain with regained confidence would have been a great match.
YouTube Spain Belgium 1986


World Cup 1990
In this World Cup in Italy Spain arrived as a group head and one of the favourites with the players of 1986 now with international reputations.
First round:
Spain 0, Uruguay 0. The Uruguayans missed a penalty

Spain 3, South Korea 1. Michel scored all three goals.

Spain 2, Belgium 1. Revenge for 1986.

Second round.
Spain 1, Yugoslavia 2. With all the hopes up for a good Spanish team that disappointed, Yugoslavia scored first. Spain managed to tie again at the end of the game. But in extra-time our hero Michel decided while being an integral part of the defensive barrier in a free kick to keep his face intact rather that intercept the ball. See the YouTube video of this cowardly act. The Gods punished Yugoslavia with dissolution.
YouTube Spain Yugoslavia 1990

World Cup 1994
In this World Cup in USA, Spain played well. Most of the Spanish players let goatees grow on their faces to emulate the Conquistadores (why would you want to do that if you know history?). The Italian barbers shaved us in the quarterfinals.

First round:
Spain 1, Germany 1. Not bad, Spain even scored first. But the Germans were weak in this World Cup.


Spain 2, South Korea 2. It looked like we were repeating old habits.

Spain 3, Bolivia 1. Finally we won a game.

Second round:
Spain 3, Switzerland 0. Spain won with authority this match. Could this time be different?

Spain 1, Italy 2. This time was not different. But Spain played very well, this match could have gone the other way. Julio Salinas was left alone in front of the goalkeeper with 1-1 score. But he choked. That is why you are asking yourself: who is Julio Salinas? The Italian Tassoti elbowed Luis Enrique's face (breaking his nose) in the last minute. Referee did not see it.
YouTube Spain Italy 1994


World Cup 1998
In the French World Cup, big disappointment for Spain which did not reach the second round for the first time since 1978. The Spanish team roster was impressive.
First round:
Spain 2, Nigeria 3. Spain scored first, Nigeria tied and then Spain scored again (great goal by Raul), but then the Spanish goalkeeper Zubizarreta decided that African teams deserved a break and handed the victory to Nigeria.
YouTube Spain Nigeria 1998

Spain 0, Paraguay 0. The Paraguayan goalkeeper Chilabert craftily manipulated the Spaniard's psychology before the game.

Spain 6, Bulgaria 1. Too late, Spain was out.


World Cup 2002
In the World Cup played in South Korea and Japan the Spanish team found an Egyptian referee on its way to the semifinals. Seriously, that was a scandalous refereeing in the quarterfinal match against locals South Korea. Almost as bad as the refereeing Spain received in its favour in Spain 1982.
First round:
Spain 3, Slovenia 1.


Spain 3, Paraguay 1. Revenge of 1998. Spaniards are vengeful.

Spain 3, South Africa 2. Yes, we had won all three matches.

Second round:
Spain 1, Ireland 1. Spain won on penalties and used up the Gods' goodwill (which was missing in the next game). What the hell was Fernando Hierro thinking in that last-minute penalty he provoked? One of the Spanish players (Albelda) managed to twist his testicles on-field. How do you twist your testicles?
YouTube Spain Ireland 2002

Spain 0, South Korea 0. Spain kicked out on penalties and we lost a golden opportunity. The Egyptian referee followed FIFA's mandate to the full extent.

YouTube Spain S Korea 2002
YouTube Summary of Referee Decisions Spain S Korea 2002

World Cup 2006
In the World Cup in Germany hopes were up for an impressive Spanish roster. But Spain proved to have a much weaker mindset than France in the playoff match.

First round:
Spain 4, Ukraine 0. Great start.

Spain 3, Tunisia 1. Tunisia scored first and old phantoms were revived, but Raul helped turn the game around.

Spain 1, Saudi Arabia 0. For a second World Cup in a row Spain won every match in the first round. Surely this time would be different.

Second round:
Spain 1, France 3. Spain scored first and it looked like we were on our way. But the French were much tougher mentally and Spain crashed out.

YouTube Spain France 2006

After reading the above you can understand why Spaniards do not want to temp fate. But this time could really be different. First of course, it looks like the curse has been lifted with our victory in EuroCup 2008, in which we took out historical rivals like Italy and Germany. Secondly, the mental toughness of this new generation is very different. They cannot remember 1982 (which did so much damage to our psyche). In Basketball our national team showed that with teamwork and professionalism Spain can be world champion (champions in 2006). This beat down an often repeated argument that Spaniards are not good enough at team sports because they are too individualistic. Thirdly a lot of our players are enrolled in foreign leagues like Fernando Torres in Liverpool, so the players are arguably more sophisticated, international and competitive than previous generations.

I just hope we are able to put a good showing in the World Cup and crash out because we meet a better team, not because we lose confidence. Time will tell.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Five Mythical World Cup Games

From Javier:

What a simulator cannot do is to model the drama of a great football game. These are five great World Cup games:

World Cup 1950: Brazil 1, Uruguay 2
The famous (infamous for Brazil) "maracanazo". Arguably the biggest sporting upset in history. This match has acquired mythical status in spite of no live television broadcast. The game was not actually the final, rather the last match of a round robin of four finalists. All Brazil needed to do was tie to win the tournament, and early in the second half Brazil scored first. But two Uruguayan goals upset the host nation’s firm belief that they would win. According to FIFA President and World Cup founder Jules Rimet, in the stadium “the silence was morbid, sometimes too difficult to bear”.

YouTube Maracanazo

World Cup 1970: Italy 4, W. Germany 3
In this semi-final match, Italy scored early in the first half. The West Germans tied 1-1 in the last second of ordinary play. In extra time West Germany scored first, followed by two goals by the Italians, followed by an equaliser by the West Germans. At 3-3, the Italians scored their fourth goal through an uninterrupted passing movement straight from the kick-off. Five goals in extra time. West German legend Beckenbauer played extra-time with a dislocated shoulder. The Italians even made a movie where the game is played continuously in background for the duration of the film.

YouTube Game of the Century


World Cup 1970: Brazil 4, Italy 1
The Brazilian team and its offensive play have acquired legendary status. Pele played and scored in his second World Cup final. Brazil’s fourth goal scorcher by Carlos Alberto from a perfect pass by Pele is arguably the best goal in a World Cup final ever.

YouTube Best Final Ever


World Cup 1982: W. Germany 3, France 3
West Germany won this semi-final game on penalties. At 1-1 by the end of ordinary time the French took a 3-1 advantage in extra-time only to see the West Germans come back and tie. The game is infamous and still polemic due to the West German goalkeeper Schumacher’s vicious foul on French player Battiston.

YouTube 1982 Semifinal


World Cup 1986: Argentina 2, England 1
This high tension quarter-final game between two countries recently at war is not mythical for the quality of play (rather boring for those of us old enough to remember), but for two moments that would forever be etched in a fan’s memory: the “Hand of God” and “the Goal of the Century”, both played out by legendary Argentine player Maradona. With Maradona returning to the 2010 World Cup as Argentine coach, expect the memories of this game to be rekindled.

YouTube Hand and Goal of the Century

YouTube Goal of the Century with mythical commentary by Victor Hugo (Spanish)

Will there be any mythical games in 2010? Time needs to pass for a game to be considered mythical. Perhaps the 2006 semi-final between Germany and Italy or the final between Italy and France may acquire mythical status, but time will tell.