June 25 Updated Probabilities

From Javier....

No surprises on the last day of group stage matches. Spain and Chile both passed in Group H, while the anti-football Swiss team was deservedly rewarded with a trip back to Geneva. Good to see the Spanish team being able to beat a very determined Chile team, there was a moment until the goalkeeper howler that led to the first Spanish goal that I thought this was going to be a long night. At the end both teams were content with the 2-1 given the 0-0 at the Switzerland - Honduras game.

Brazil and Portugal tied in a stinker 0-0 while Ivory Coast defeated North Korea, 3-0. The North Koreans are off back home to explain to their Supreme Leader what has happened. I blame capitalist referees and balls.

We have updated the Simulator with today's results and updated user inputs, which now ignores the 16 teams that have packed their bags. Results are below. Brazil is still favourite with a 22.0% of taking the tournament followed by a recovered Spain with 18.1%. Argentina and Germany are next in the pack with 10.2% and 9.7%, respectively.

Updated Probability Estimates (June 22)

From Javier...

Its worth updating the Simulator's updated probabilities as we enter the final stage of round 1 of the World Cup. The table reflects the fact that some teams are already qualified for the play-offs, evidenced by their 100% chance of reaching the 2nd round.

Brazil is favoured to win. The most devastated team from the ex-ante estimates is France. It would have to take a miracle for Argentina not to qualify today.

Remember to click on "Keep User Input Scores in the Model" in the Dialog Box within the Simulator to simulate the rest of the tournament while keeping scores to date intact.

The estimates below are generated 50% model weighting (ex-ante estimates) and 50% user inputs (our updated subjective views).

Simulating Group Stage Final Positions

From Javier...

Well, well, well....Serbia 1, Germany 0. The final games of Group D are going to be very interesting. Its time to use the simulating capabilities of the Simulator. Not the Monte Carlo simulation engine, rather testing the impact on Group classifications of different outcomes in the last two games.

To do this go to the workbook 'Group Stages'; put the actual results to date in the right boxes and then start playing around with different results of the last two games, hitting the "Update Tables" button. An example of an outcome for Group A is below.

Group A is really interesting. First, a tie between Mexico and Uruguay will automatically qualify both of them (Uruguay first, Mexico second) for next round. Will the two teams accept this? I doubt it, the second team has to play in all probability Argentina in the next round and I don't think the Mexicans will be conformed with that. They should, and will, come out to win to have an easier match-up in the second round.

Even if Mexico and Uruguay do not tie, France will not qualify automatically even with a victory over South Africa, as illustrated in the table. France would need a big victory over South Africa to be able to pass to second round.

So do not discount the French. The French players should assume that Uruguayans and Mexicans will go out for a win. And if the French have any pride left in them they should go for a big win by four or five goals. The coach should bring Henry out and go for broke. But the South Africans will also want to redeem themselves in front of their fans, so this will be a potentially great match.

What about Group B? Nigeria is not out, as the simulation illustrates. I think it is fair to assume that Argentina will beat Greece, so Nigeria has its destiny in its hands. And the Koreans will also want to win, so that match-up will be great to see.

Updated Simulator June 17

From Javier...

So now that each team has played at least one game it is time to update the Simulator.

The first step is in the worksheet 'Group Stages': put in the results to date in the right input boxes reserved for scores.

The second step is to back to worksheet 'Setup' and hit the "Run Simulator" button. Now in the Simulator dialog box the key thing to remember is to check the box next to "Keep User Input Scores in the Model". This will keep the scores to date when the simulation is run and will not overwrite them.

What we have also done is to run the Simulator on 50% Model weighting and 50% User Input. And we have updated the User Team Weightings to reflect our subjective estimates of the strength of each team after having seen them play.

Below is the results of the Simulator with updated estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Compare this to out previous blog entry of Results of a 9999 Iteration Run to be able to observe the impact on estimated probabilities of games to date and user inputs.




South Africa now is estimated to have very low chances of making it to the second round after last night's match. Uruguay on the other hand has high chances (have increased to 86% from Simulator's previous estimate of 44%).

Spain, in spite of our generosity in the user inputs, has taken a considerable beating in probabilities both to pass to second round and to win the World Cup. This is just a reflection that last night's result has put Spain in harm's way of random/adverse events in the next two games; it is on precipice and does not have room for error. Switzerland has improved dramatically its chances of going to the second round and even of winning the World Cup (still low, but at 1.6% much higher than the previous estimate of 0.4%).

Greece suffers a dramatic drop in probabilities of success (15% chance of passing versus previous estimate of 64.5%), while Slovenia (now 47% from 16%), Japan (now 53% from 17%) and Korea Republic (now 63% from 18%) have increased considerably their chances of making it to second round.

Germany, Netherlands and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup have been revised upwards, with Germany now the second most probable team to win after Brazil.

Also to note is that the model gives a Brazil - Spain cross in the first round of the playoff stages a 30.7% estimate (use the "Analysis of Heads to Heads" utility within the Simulator dialog box to check this out).

Please update the results in your Simulators and use your own inputs.

New and Improved User Inputs

From Sukhdev

Well, I guess it's about time that I chimed in. Javier and I don't always agree and that is evident from our views on football. I've run the simulator using 50% model and 50% user inputs. My user inputs are a little less "exact" than Javier's.

I have concentrated on batching teams. As Javier is Spanish, I guess he is being modest about Spain's chances, and with Xavi's supposedly playing with a calf injury and Torres' operation, maybe Javier is just being prudent or does not want to tempt fate. However, I think they should be favourites followed by Brazil, who also look fabulous.

Next I have batched England, France, Germany, Italy and Holland. All great teams, which on their day can win, so I think they should be equally weighted and the model can look towards history to sort them out. Next I add Argentina followed by Portugal. I would expect Argentina to be strong, but Maradona was definitely a better player than he is a manager. How can a team with such talent only barely qualify for the finals?

My surprise team is Ivory Coast who, with the likes of Drogba, Kalou and Toure, should do really well. So my simulation looks like:

Running Simulation with User Inputs

From Javier

Its easy to run the Isthmus Partners World Cup Simulator using your own inputs for team weightings. These are the steps:


(1) Go to the 'Setup' worksheet and change under the heading "Model Weighting" the cell next to "Model" from 100% to 0%


(2) In the range under "User Team Weightings" change the numbers for each team according to your own criteria. You need to make sure the total is 1000. One trick is to give your favourite team 80 or 100 and the weakest teams a score of 5, and then fill in between. Remember the average score per team is 31/32, so for each team scored above 32 you need you will need to put below average scores for other teams.


(3) In the table below are the estimated probabilities for each team of reaching different stages of the World Cup resulting from a 9999 iteration run using my own User Team Weightings and with 100% User Input weighting. The first column in the table below reflects my own input weighting for each team.




I have given Brazil the highest score, 100. I have assumed for Spain the second highest score with 78 and Germany third with 65. Between Brazil, Spain and Germany those three teams have an almost 50% chance of winning the World Cup, which to me seems fair, as I personally believe this World Cup is more open than previous tournaments.


I have given South Africa a relatively high score compared to its football history and rankings because of the home country advantage. I know that no home team has ever failed to progress to the second stage of a World Cup. South Africa has about a 1 in 40 chance of winning according to my inputs.


Please be mindful that the chances of winning the World Cup are not only dependent on a team's strength, but it is also influenced by "path dependency". Path dependency is one of those technical words that modellers like to use to look smart. But all it means in this context is that the chances of a team progressing are determined by the other teams it meets along its way to the final. So for example although Argentina and France have similar weightings, Argentina has a significantly higher chance of winning the World Cup because it has a theoretically easier Group Stage, which is why Argentina has a 83.7% chance of reaching the 2nd round compared to France's 74.8%. Observing France's group in the first stage it is not unreasonable to assume it has a 1 in 4 chance of being kicked out of the tournament in the first stage, like it was in World Cup 2002.


Another way to check the reasonableness of your estimates is to check head-to-head pairings using the "Score Generator" in the Isthmus Partners World Cup Simulator Dialog Box. The results of Brazil to Spain pairings are:
Brazil wins: 46%
Draw: 25%
Spain wins: 29%


I am comfortable with those probabilities of Brazil vs Spain. If I pair Brazil vs Australia then Brazil has a 65% chance of winning, 25% chance of drawing and 10% chance of losing. I am also OK with that. Spain vs Germany results in Spain having a 44% chance of winning, 24% chance of drawing and 32% chance of losing.


Play around with the user weightings and the Score Generator until you get results that are in your comfort zone. Remember each time you change User Inputs to "Run Distributions" in the Dialog Box.

Please post your assumptions and results as a comment, we want to see what you are coming out with!