Its worth updating the Simulator's updated probabilities as we enter the final stage of round 1 of the World Cup. The table reflects the fact that some teams are already qualified for the play-offs, evidenced by their 100% chance of reaching the 2nd round.
Brazil is favoured to win. The most devastated team from the ex-ante estimates is France. It would have to take a miracle for Argentina not to qualify today.
Remember to click on "Keep User Input Scores in the Model" in the Dialog Box within the Simulator to simulate the rest of the tournament while keeping scores to date intact.
The estimates below are generated 50% model weighting (ex-ante estimates) and 50% user inputs (our updated subjective views).
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