June 23 Games

From Javier...

France consummated the perfect World Cup disaster in their exit yesterday. Uruguay's victory over Mexico 1-0 gave the French a window of opportunity that they were incapable of even trying to grab. As per yesterday's blog entry, recriminations in the French camp will be terrible. Even Monsieur Sarkozy is getting on the act. I find it hard to fathom that players/managers/executives don't put their nation's interests first. We all know that football is not just a sport. It impacts a nation's view of itself and players are role models for the young and not-so-young. France needs some serious introspection. Also needs a course on what professionalism really entails (not group corporatism). A word comes to mind.... "decadence".

The red card was undeserved for Gourcuff, the play was not intentional. What is frustrating about this World Cup (like other World Cups) is not that referees try to protect fairplay, but the lack of consistency in rulings.

In Group B Nigeria was very close to qualifying but after a nerve-wracking end was out. Argentina looks very strong going into the second round, but will not find Mexico easy. Greece culminated an annus horribilis - and the year is only half done.

In today's games, Sukhdev will be watching in the stadium live England - Slovenia. I hope for the sake of the blog that England wins (Sukhi will maintain his motivation).

Amazingly, the English have managed to talk themselves that this game is an uphill battle. On any normal day the English should crush the Slovenians, but this is not a normal World Cup.

The Simulator strongly favours USA over Algeria, and I agree as long as team USA plays with the same spirit and determination of previous games.

Game of the day. A major upset possible? Of course it is. That is why we will see this match, for the potential drama. But I doubt Germany will fail.


Model favours Serbia, but I think the Aussies found themselves against Ghana. More equal than what the Simulator suggests.

In terms of simulation of Group results, England's nightmare scenario is depicted below.

In Group D, Germany's nightmare scenario is shown below.

And this scenario shows what kind of results would result in Australia passing.

Probabilities of making it to second round:

England: 62.1%

Algeria: 13.6%

Slovenia: 56.3%

USA: 68.0%

Germany: 72.0%

Ghana: 56.0%

Serbia: 66.0%

Australia: 6.0%