Simulating Group Stage Final Positions

From Javier...

Well, well, well....Serbia 1, Germany 0. The final games of Group D are going to be very interesting. Its time to use the simulating capabilities of the Simulator. Not the Monte Carlo simulation engine, rather testing the impact on Group classifications of different outcomes in the last two games.

To do this go to the workbook 'Group Stages'; put the actual results to date in the right boxes and then start playing around with different results of the last two games, hitting the "Update Tables" button. An example of an outcome for Group A is below.

Group A is really interesting. First, a tie between Mexico and Uruguay will automatically qualify both of them (Uruguay first, Mexico second) for next round. Will the two teams accept this? I doubt it, the second team has to play in all probability Argentina in the next round and I don't think the Mexicans will be conformed with that. They should, and will, come out to win to have an easier match-up in the second round.

Even if Mexico and Uruguay do not tie, France will not qualify automatically even with a victory over South Africa, as illustrated in the table. France would need a big victory over South Africa to be able to pass to second round.

So do not discount the French. The French players should assume that Uruguayans and Mexicans will go out for a win. And if the French have any pride left in them they should go for a big win by four or five goals. The coach should bring Henry out and go for broke. But the South Africans will also want to redeem themselves in front of their fans, so this will be a potentially great match.

What about Group B? Nigeria is not out, as the simulation illustrates. I think it is fair to assume that Argentina will beat Greece, so Nigeria has its destiny in its hands. And the Koreans will also want to win, so that match-up will be great to see.