June 17 Games (New Distribution)

From Javier...

Well Spain did not disappoint and returned to old habits (Spain 0, Switzerland 1). See my blog entry Reminiscences of a Middle-Aged Spaniard to see how long this curse has been going on for.
Two readings today in Spain: a positive one that this will jolt the team and get them out of complacency; a negative one that the team is going to get nervous and screw up again.

Seeing the game with other Spaniards it was like the ghost of World Cup's past visiting me again. These were some of the dejavu moments:

• "Don't worry, this game we are going to turn it around"
• "It does not matter, we still have two games"
• "This is good, next game they will be hungry"
• "Now that we are not favourites anymore we will perform better"
• "At least this is going to hurt the Socialist Government"

In the other games of yesterday Chile beat Honduras (1-0) and a good Uruguay with Diego Forlan in top form beat a weak South Africa 3-0. Good to see in the Uruguay games that going for victory with a strong mindset even in an adverse environment is rewarded handsomely.

We have updated the distributions of the model to reflect the forms of the teams in their first matches and are running the Simulator on 50% original inputs and 50% the new user inputs. The user inputs are a 50/50 blend of Sukhdev and my estimates.

Games for June 17:

Argentina if it plays with the same conviction as against Nigeria should not have a problem.

I think the model is wrong here and that Nigeria is more highly likely to take this. The Greek's mindset is very weak and the Nigerians need to redeem themselves in front of an African crowd.

















Interesting game. The French on a good day should take it but I am suspicious after their game against Uruguay. Mexico can surprise.