Football Withdrawal Syndrome Kicks In

From Javier...

Two full days ahead without matches. Get ready for the shivers of football withdrawal syndrome. What will we do? Well look at repetitions I guess and YouTube videos of best goals to date.

First let me say how relieved I am at Spain's performance tonight. In spite of playing one of the toughest defense in the world, the players kept their calm and maintained their strategy and tempo. Once the Portuguese were a goal behind from the billiard-like passing Spanish goal they really did not have an answer. I did not count a single shot on the Spanish goal from the 1-0. It must be so frustrating to be one goal behind and not be able to get possession. A few notes about the game:

• In a previous entry I speculated about Spain that the "mental toughness of this new generation is very different".... and this was proved tonight. While I was close to despair early in the second half imagining how tragedy would play out, these guys kept their cool, kept possession, kept their passing game. And when they were 1-0 up they did not lose focus, rather they even sharpened it more.
• The change of Llorente on for Torres was brilliant; it added that extra spice needed to wear down the Portuguese defense and make their chances of a mistake just that extra bit more probable..... and the Portuguese changes were a disaster.....Spanish coach definitely outperformed Portuguese coach tonight
• Much was made of the Portuguese defense, but the ability of the Spaniards to recover the ball quickly and frequently in threatening positions was admirable; the Portuguese were very frustrated
• Much has been said that the Spaniards have weak physical form and lose steam over the game; tonight I saw no problems with form and rather at the end the Spanish form was better than the Portuguese
• Spain had luck, all the luck it missed against Switzerland
• Still Spain has a lot of possession and not enough effectiveness
• Casillas seems a little bit shaky....they will test from 25/30 yards in the next game
• With hindsight, the Swiss medicine was the best pill that a Doctor could order for the hyped Spanish players - but only with hindsight!

So we have this weekend two big World Cup classics:

Argentina - Germany (just like 2006)

Netherlands - Brazil (a common feature of World Cups)

And two other games: Uruguay - Ghana and Spain - Paraguay.

Four of the teams speak Spanish. Not sure if that has any relevance, rather an indicator of how well South America is doing in this World Cup. Spain has never had it so good to make it to the semifinals...... well, that is what we thought in 2002 and crashed against the South Koreans. But if Spain plays like today and Paraguay plays like today there is no doubt Spain will make it. I favour Uruguay over Ghana, Argentina over Germany and Brazil over Netherlands. We will see what the Simulator says over the next two days.

In the meantime, go cold turkey!

June 29 Games

From Javier...


Third day of playoff games were played with the bad smell still lingering in the air of yesterday's refereeing disasters. Those kind of mistakes take away from the beauty of the game.


Netherlands and Brazil easily defeated Slovakia and Chile. Chile was supposed to be one of the surprises of the tournament. I guess sound defeats against Spain and Brazil show that Chile's victories over Honduras and Switzerland were overstated in their significance. The Slovaks left the World Cup with the pride of their historical victory over Italy.


Today's games according to the Simulator:



Paraguay meets Japan. Why does this have penalty shoot-out written all over it (no penalty shoot-outs to date).











Spain has a very tough match against Portugal. The Portuguese know the Spaniards very well and will make their progress difficult. Cristiano Ronaldo will be the key.

World Cup Diary June 27

From Sukhdev in South Africa....

On Friday I undertook the long journey by car from Port Elizabeth to Bloemfontain, which amounted to 700 kms. The scenery was amazing, going through lush greenery and driving through winding mountain roads. Every now and then I would see troops of monkeys crossing the roads, and breathtaking mountain views.

In Bloemfontain I met up with a number of mates, so now I am travelling with friends, which is nice though it was easy to meet people in South Africa. Both locals and other football fans have been very approachable.

The people in Bloemfontain were incredibly friendly, but the place was extremely cold. Unfortunately, the Switzerland vs Honduras game was a anticlimax to the day and the drive was the highlight. The ground was decidedly fuller in the second half than the first. I suspect the organisers allowed people in as the ground looked half empty. This had a knock on effect on the atmosphere. Apart from a small pocket of Hondurans cheering sporadically, the ground was fairly quiet. Even vuvuzelas sounds were dampened.

In contrast, the bars were a sea of red and loud singing and bell ringing could be heard from far outside the Waterfront mall.

On Saturday, we had another long drive, about 550 kms to Rustenburg. The scenery was a lot less impressive, but still interesting. After a few hundred kilometres I must admit, I was tired of driving.

Rustenburg is probably the worst organised place I have been to in South Africa. It was frustrating trying to navigate the different park 'n' rides, but it's still hard to get annoyed with the freindly staff, though they provided very little useful information.

The game, Ghana vs USA, unlike the day before, was a great highlight in the day. From the time we stepped onto the bus with Ghana and US fans trading chanting very loudly, to being in the ground right between Ghanian and US fans and a great game, the whole experience made all the frustrations worthwhile.

Today, Sunday, we drove to Johannesburg. I had my first experience in a fan park. The crowd was good, but most of the fans were people from various countries supporting the two teams playing, so the atmosphere was a little artificial. The place lacked the passion that real fans for a team provides.

But maybe I am biased, as the game I watched was England vs Germany. After that game and the later game also, how can FIFA continue to rule out TV replays for key game changing decisions. Saying that, the Germans looked too good for the English and probably deserved to go through. I can only hope we now let Capello go and get in a manager who understands our players, and doesn't insist on playing his own style.

I attended the second game, Argentina vs Mexico. Soccer City Stadium must be one of the best stadiums I have been to. It is steeply banked and sounds reverberate around. At times I couldn't hear my friends shouting at me right into my ear for the vuvuzelas.

The Argentines turned out in force. At the end the Argentines attacked in the first half, Argentine flags waved and fans jumped and chanted relentlessly. The passion was obvious. Just like in the England, there was a controversial decision on a goal. Argentina's first goal was clearly offside. The whole crowd saw it, and after texting a number of friends who were watching on TV, it was confirmed. Even the linesman seemed to have seen it, but the ref 'bottled it'.

So a few more teams are going home. So are England. However, I intend to keep enjoying the World Cup, though it may now feel like being at someone else's party.

June 28 Games

From Javier....

Bad taste from yesterday's games still lingers. Does not matter that Germany and Argentina deserved to go through. Referee decisions had major impacts on results and "perverse the course of justice".

June 28 match-ups:

Netherlands will not underestimate Slovakia after seeing how the Slovakians dealt with Italy. Still Netherlands should go through.

Chile will be a tough cookie for Brazil to crack if the Chileans play with the same impetus as against Spain. Brazil needs an early goal or things may become uphill.

World Cup's Day of Infamy

From Javier...

Second day of playoff games in World Cup are a day of scandal. In the England - Germany game, the Uruguayan linesman incredibly did not see what everybody else in the stadium could see: a Lampard strike hit the bar and bounced at least a foot inside the German goal. That would have been 2-2 and the game could have been very different from that moment on. No doubt that the English were incredibly damaged by this decision.

German goalkeeper suspended in air as he sees the ball crashing deep within the German goal.


In the Argentina - Mexico game, the first goal was preceded by a one yard offside by Tevez. Again the linesman error had a great influence on the game's result.




Certainly the debate over the next few days will center around the use of technology to avoid these refereeing disasters. FIFA will be under great pressure. The referees in the coming games are going to be very nervous and this can lead to more errors.

June 27 Games

From Javier....


Uruguay defeated South Korea 2-1 in the first play-off game. The South Koreans surprised with the offensive capabilities and their defensive weaknesses. The first goal by each time was preceded by goalkeeper howlers, one of the themes of this World Cup. The second Uruguayan goal by Suarez was a beauty. Reminded me of a mirror image of Italy's first goal against Germany in the semifinal of World Cup 2006.


In the second of yesterday's games team USA's luck ran out in extra-time (USA 1, Ghana 2). When it seemed that the Americans had the game under way they conceded an early goal in extra-time and this time there was no miracle, even with their goalkeeper Howard in the Ghanan area at the end. Bill Clinton spent the game explaining to Mick Jagger the mysteries of "soccer".


The Simulator has estimated these probabilities for today's games:




A classic World Cup match up. I would not be able to describe with words how badly the English want to beat Germany. Don't miss this, drama is assured.






Argentina should be able to beat Mexico, but I would not underestimate the ability of the Mexicans to put up a fight.

Goal Average Poor

From Javier.....

We have updated goal statistics from our previous entry World up Goal Statistics. The results are below, this is estimated eliminating the highest scoreline game in each tournament. The trend is not good. And if the inertia of the two previous World Cups continues the goal effectiveness in the playoff round will be dreadful.

I bet the thinking heads at FIFA will take this into consideration. Potential changes include actually making the goals slightly bigger.

June 26 Playoff Games

From Javier....


We have had a lot of drama in this World Cup to date. Now the real drama begins. Pure head to head battles, with extra-times and the drama of the penalty shoot-out. The teams that keep a cool head will progress.




Team USA takes on Africa's only remaining hope. Referee might be sympathetic to Ghana to keep an African team alive. The Americans will do well to ignore referee decisions and focus on the objective as they have been doing until now. If USA progresses will be key for "Soccer's" future in America as per previous blog entry.











The Uruguayans are one of the pleasant surprises of the first round and Diego Forlan is one of the players of the tournament. But they will find the South Korean nut tough to crack. Will require patience, skill and luck. Careful with the Korean's counters and plays from set pieces.

June 25 Updated Probabilities

From Javier....

No surprises on the last day of group stage matches. Spain and Chile both passed in Group H, while the anti-football Swiss team was deservedly rewarded with a trip back to Geneva. Good to see the Spanish team being able to beat a very determined Chile team, there was a moment until the goalkeeper howler that led to the first Spanish goal that I thought this was going to be a long night. At the end both teams were content with the 2-1 given the 0-0 at the Switzerland - Honduras game.

Brazil and Portugal tied in a stinker 0-0 while Ivory Coast defeated North Korea, 3-0. The North Koreans are off back home to explain to their Supreme Leader what has happened. I blame capitalist referees and balls.

We have updated the Simulator with today's results and updated user inputs, which now ignores the 16 teams that have packed their bags. Results are below. Brazil is still favourite with a 22.0% of taking the tournament followed by a recovered Spain with 18.1%. Argentina and Germany are next in the pack with 10.2% and 9.7%, respectively.

World Cup Upsets

From Javier...

We have updated our World Cup historical upsets to reflect yesterday's games.

June 25 Games

From Javier....

Slovakia shocked reining champions Italy out of the World Cup (3-2). The Italians did not seem to get in the game until about minute 70 but once in seemed to be able to score with ease. The Italian second goal by Quagliarella was masterful. Pepe missed a last second equalizer that probably kept him all up night.

New Zealand left the World Cup undefeated. Not bad for a team that features amateurs. In Group E Japan is the companion of Netherlands to the next round.

Today's games:


What a game. Portugal will go for victory to avoid Spain (I hope) in next round. The Brazilians will like to show their mother country a thing or two. Should be very open play. Ivory Coast will need to score about 10 goals against North Korea for Portugal to not pass in case of their defeat.











If I was the Ivory Coast manager I would have made his players see the Spain - Malta match of 1983
I mean, you might as well go for it, what is it to lose. If Brazil beats Portugal you will feel stupid if you did not try.












Ayy, my heart trembles. Spain will be playing with a very offensive line-up, only victory can do. I hope ghosts of World Cup pasts wait for another day.








Sweet revenge. The conservative Swiss having to score goals against a wall of 10 defenders. Hah! Take some of your own medicine.















Simulator estimated probabilities of reaching second round:

Brazil: 100.0%
Portugal: 99.6%
Ivory Coast: 0.4%
North Korea: 0.0%
Spain: 71.9%
Chile: 70.6%
Switzerland: 57.0%
Honduras: 0.5%

Welcome USA to the Beautiful Game

From Javier....

It looks like the United States if finally "getting it"...... why the rest of the world loves football. In spite of some skeptics (see below), watching the reaction of home front USA fans on YouTube there is no doubt the yanks have arrived to stay. Enjoy this, because football is cruel and disappointments are more numerous than satisfactions (I should know, I am Spanish).

America's Love Affair Grows

Soccer coverage in USA

Soccer will never be dominant sport

Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Las Vegas

Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Nebraska

Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Texas

June 24 Games

From Javier...

England finally made it to the second round where they will play a classic match-up against Germany. Amazing to see the English so satisfied after only beating Slovenia 1-0 and being second in their group. England really needs to get its act together versus Germany.

Team USA showed that with spirit you can get results with a minute 91 goal from a tearful Donovan. Must be worth $5 million in sponsorships for the chap, no wonder he was crying.

In Group D Germany and Ghana made it to the second round, with Australia at a given moment only two goals away from qualifying. The Serbians almost tied in the end and blamed the referee for missing out on what they claim was a handball in the Australian box.

Today's game estimates by the Simulator are below.



Italy are strongly favoured over Slovakia.






Paraguay should take care of New Zealand. But don't underestimate the kiwi's spirit.

In Group E all Denmark needs versus Japan is a tie, so the Japanese need to go for it and will open the game to counterattacks.







Cameroon has no chance of qualifying, they will play for honour. Hopefully they will avoid unnecessary rough play on the Dutch.















Probabilities of passing to second round:

Italy 74.5%
Slovakia 18.2%
Paraguay 93.2%
New Zealand 14.0%
Netherlands 100.0%
Japan 21.6%
Cameroon 0.0%
Denmark 78.4%

Photos from South Africa

From Sukhdev in South Africa....

Drop your guns off at the "Gun Drop Off" point........

Slovenia vs England in situ.......

World Cup Diary June 24

From Sukhdev in South Africa......

I woke up yesterday morning to see that there was a guard posted at the front door with a big stick. Of course he was sound asleep and snoring loudly. Maybe a new type of deterrent tactic I'm obviously oblivious to.

At Cape Town airport, I picked up my world cup tickets. I was walking around with a massive smile on my face. There were so many fans in the airport, it really felt like I was finally in the mix. When I got to Port Elizabeth there was big taxi line. With this in mind, you and the taxi driver both know you are going to get ripped off on the fare. Why, therefore does the taxi driver try to justify the price. Just tell me the pain!

Anyway, being at the England game was amazing. Great atmosphere with the singing drowning out the vuvuzelas. It felt like a home game with only a couple of pockets of Slovenia fans. England had a good game, and the performance was much better. Rooney still seems a little out of sorts, and it was good to see him brought off in the second half. There were a few moments when we had our hearts in our mouths as Slovenia moved forward, not least when Terry had to block a shot in the second half at last second. Overall, we had a number of chances and should have got the second.

The only deflater came when news spread of USA's late goal and that we had finished second. It was doubly bad for me, as my tickets were based on England winning the group. But nothing was going to dampen the English spirits as a chorus of "we're not going home" and "bring on the Germans" rang round the stadium (and the bars later).

That night, the English partied hard on the Boardwalk. As the Germany vs Ghana game came on, there were a few Germans in the bars, but overwhelmingly outnumbered by the English. The Germans had to endure a round of "5-1, even Heskey scored", but we knew they were going to be our next opponents. Bring on the Germans!

June 23 Games

From Javier...

France consummated the perfect World Cup disaster in their exit yesterday. Uruguay's victory over Mexico 1-0 gave the French a window of opportunity that they were incapable of even trying to grab. As per yesterday's blog entry, recriminations in the French camp will be terrible. Even Monsieur Sarkozy is getting on the act. I find it hard to fathom that players/managers/executives don't put their nation's interests first. We all know that football is not just a sport. It impacts a nation's view of itself and players are role models for the young and not-so-young. France needs some serious introspection. Also needs a course on what professionalism really entails (not group corporatism). A word comes to mind.... "decadence".

The red card was undeserved for Gourcuff, the play was not intentional. What is frustrating about this World Cup (like other World Cups) is not that referees try to protect fairplay, but the lack of consistency in rulings.

In Group B Nigeria was very close to qualifying but after a nerve-wracking end was out. Argentina looks very strong going into the second round, but will not find Mexico easy. Greece culminated an annus horribilis - and the year is only half done.

In today's games, Sukhdev will be watching in the stadium live England - Slovenia. I hope for the sake of the blog that England wins (Sukhi will maintain his motivation).

Amazingly, the English have managed to talk themselves that this game is an uphill battle. On any normal day the English should crush the Slovenians, but this is not a normal World Cup.

The Simulator strongly favours USA over Algeria, and I agree as long as team USA plays with the same spirit and determination of previous games.

Game of the day. A major upset possible? Of course it is. That is why we will see this match, for the potential drama. But I doubt Germany will fail.


Model favours Serbia, but I think the Aussies found themselves against Ghana. More equal than what the Simulator suggests.

In terms of simulation of Group results, England's nightmare scenario is depicted below.

In Group D, Germany's nightmare scenario is shown below.

And this scenario shows what kind of results would result in Australia passing.

Probabilities of making it to second round:

England: 62.1%

Algeria: 13.6%

Slovenia: 56.3%

USA: 68.0%

Germany: 72.0%

Ghana: 56.0%

Serbia: 66.0%

Australia: 6.0%

World Cup Diary June 22

From Sukhdev in South Africa....

So I've just arrived in Cape Town. While I was on the plane, the pilot gave us updates on the progress of the Group A games. Though most of the flight was not full of South Africans, the demise of the French team at the hands of the South Africans was greeted with huge cheers. The other game hardly registered. As a result Cape Town is definitely a party town tonight.

At the airport I was met by a Cameroonian taxi driver. He had hardly seen any games, but was quite happy for the work the world cup was bringing. As he put it, he would rather work now, as there will be nothing to do after the football is over. After a lively debate about his views on how women should be for producing offspring only and how I couldn't be of pure Indian heritage, we arrived at the hostel.

As normal, the hostel is full of a number of nationalities. I quickly made friends with a group of Norwegians with an impressive knowledge of the game. Inevitably they all supported one of the big English teams.

We watched both games intermittently. The South Korea vs Nigeria game produced some drama, and there was certainly a good level of support for the Nigerians from the crowd.

Anyway, after the long journey, I am going to turn in. Tomorrow is my first game - England vs Slovenia. Can't wait.

Updated Probability Estimates (June 22)

From Javier...

Its worth updating the Simulator's updated probabilities as we enter the final stage of round 1 of the World Cup. The table reflects the fact that some teams are already qualified for the play-offs, evidenced by their 100% chance of reaching the 2nd round.

Brazil is favoured to win. The most devastated team from the ex-ante estimates is France. It would have to take a miracle for Argentina not to qualify today.

Remember to click on "Keep User Input Scores in the Model" in the Dialog Box within the Simulator to simulate the rest of the tournament while keeping scores to date intact.

The estimates below are generated 50% model weighting (ex-ante estimates) and 50% user inputs (our updated subjective views).

June 22 Games

From Javier...

Sukhdev is on his way to South Africa where tomorrow he will be seeing the England-Slovenia match.

The World Cup returned to normality somewhat yesterday as the favourite teams won and there were no big upsets. Spain defeated Honduras 2-0 but has a tricky match left against Chile on Friday. The Spaniards have an incredible ability to miss chances, but that does not win world cups. Fernando Torres is in poor form and Spain needs his killer instinct intact. Chile beat the horribly boring Swiss 1-0. If the Gods of football are just (they are not) Switzerland will be sent home packing on Friday. Portugal devastated North Korea 7-0. That is as much goals as scored in the famous quarterfinal between both countries in World Cup 1966 (4-3 for Portugal) but on this occasion the goal distribution was lopsided.

The last set of games in each group start today. In Group A, a very interesting Mexico-Uruguay. Will the Mexicans conform with the tie and play Argentina in the next round? I doubt it. An open Mexico-Uruguay games still gives France, or even South Africa, an opportunity. The French should go for it, but are they in the psychological state to do so?; instead of focusing on the opportunity, all they are focused on is on infighting (a reflection of the overall country?). And South Africa will go for the game for their fans. All I can say if that if Uruguay defeats Mexico and France ties or has a short victory over South Africa, the French will rue the lost chance (..... and more infighting and finger pointing). The Simulator with the latest distributions still gives France an 8.6% chance of progressing to second round.

In Group B, the interesting match is Nigeria - South Korea. With the Argentinians going for victory over Greece (Messi will play...... that is really professional and brave by Maradona) the Nigerians can still qualify with a victory over the Koreans. The Nigerians should go for it.





Can the French deliver? In spite of my delight in the fiasco of the northern neighbour of my country (Spain), I have a hunch French pride will make an act of presence today. They have to try because they still have a fighting chance (wow how the media will change if they qualify). On the other hand the bafana bafana are under no pressure and will want to show at least one scalp.

Mexico and Uruguay. Is the temptation to tie to difficult to resist? I think the teams will both go for it. The Uruguayans will look very stupid if they lay back only to be stunned 5 minutes from the final and with the French laying it into South Africa.




















The game of the day for me. I have to admit I have it against South Korea since their scandalous referee-assisted victory over Spain in quarterfinals 2002. The Nigerians still can survive and must go for broke.
















Argentina is under no pressure. With fluid football and a hungry Messi, together with a Greece that needs to go for it may turn this into a bloodbath.

Unlucky Aussies

From Sukhdev:

I'm starting to feel a little sorry for the Australians. They had a plucky game against Ghana, and I thought Ghana would go onto win the game once Kewell was sent off. Kewell deserved to be sent off, but so did Addy after a horific tackle. Australia were probably wondering how Cahill could be sent off against the Germans while Addy only got a yellow card. Still, it was one of the better games to watch. With 11 on 11 or 10 vs 10, I think the Australians would probably have won.

In contrast, the Netherlands vs Japan game was a little stale until the Dutch scored meaning the Japanese had to come out and play. The Denmark game was also interesting, and it could have gone either way.

So to today's games. First up is Slovakia vs Paraguay. I just hope both teams really go for it. Slovakia probably need this one more, but our model shows that Paraguay is a more likely winner.






















The second game should see Italy win, but in this cup who knows. Most of the top seeds are not doing that well.























The final game should be very interesting. Cote d'Ivoire need the win more, but to beat Brazil will be a very difficult task. However, Cote d'Ivoire does have a lot of quality so I would not completely rule them out.

June 19 Games

From Javier...

The 2010 World Cup has been cracked wide open over the past three days. Sukhdev is fuming after yesterday's poor showing by England (Algeria 0, England 0). Difficult to understand the lack of conviction of the English players, reminds me of Spain. But coach Capello has to take a lot of the blame, the English team seems to be playing with too many constraints and rigidities. Placing Gerrard on the left was a tactical faux pas. Rooney looks particularly nervous and with either physical or confidence problems. "Nice to see your own fans booing"........ is what he said to the camera at the end of the game. Not smart to antagonise the fan base, but maybe this is the catalyzer he needs (he will like to make obscene gestures to the fans when he scores his next goal).

Serbia beat Germany 1-0 and the Germans missed a penalty. The Germans were furious about the referee's dismissal of Klose in the first half. But if you tackle someone from behind in mid-field, don't touch the ball, trip the opponent and interrupt the flow of play and the opportunity of the other team's counterattack, and if you have been warned by the referee not to do it again just a few minutes earlier, what is to complain?

The USA and Slovenia tied 2-2 in a lively match. Good to see the team USA with courage being rewarded with a draw after going 2-0 down. Note for the rest: instead of caving in to pressure or lamenting back luck, just keep focusing on getting the ball, getting into goalscoring situations and shooting on target when the opportunity arises. I loved the spirit of team USA.

Today's games and the Simulator estimates are the following.




Netherlands are strongly favoured by the model over Japan, but the reality on the ground against the well organised Japanese will be tougher than on paper.














The Australians are tilted to win over Ghana. But Ghana are favourites to win with media and fans after beating Serbia. I believe the Australians will come out with much stronger mindset than the game against Germany and will be a competitive game.















Cameroon takes on Denmark in the match of underachievers, with Cameroon estimated to have slightly higher chances of taking this one.Both teams need to win to keep their qualifying chances so hopefully they will come out with a winning mentality.

Simulating Group Stage Final Positions

From Javier...

Well, well, well....Serbia 1, Germany 0. The final games of Group D are going to be very interesting. Its time to use the simulating capabilities of the Simulator. Not the Monte Carlo simulation engine, rather testing the impact on Group classifications of different outcomes in the last two games.

To do this go to the workbook 'Group Stages'; put the actual results to date in the right boxes and then start playing around with different results of the last two games, hitting the "Update Tables" button. An example of an outcome for Group A is below.

Group A is really interesting. First, a tie between Mexico and Uruguay will automatically qualify both of them (Uruguay first, Mexico second) for next round. Will the two teams accept this? I doubt it, the second team has to play in all probability Argentina in the next round and I don't think the Mexicans will be conformed with that. They should, and will, come out to win to have an easier match-up in the second round.

Even if Mexico and Uruguay do not tie, France will not qualify automatically even with a victory over South Africa, as illustrated in the table. France would need a big victory over South Africa to be able to pass to second round.

So do not discount the French. The French players should assume that Uruguayans and Mexicans will go out for a win. And if the French have any pride left in them they should go for a big win by four or five goals. The coach should bring Henry out and go for broke. But the South Africans will also want to redeem themselves in front of their fans, so this will be a potentially great match.

What about Group B? Nigeria is not out, as the simulation illustrates. I think it is fair to assume that Argentina will beat Greece, so Nigeria has its destiny in its hands. And the Koreans will also want to win, so that match-up will be great to see.

Come on England!

From Sukhdev:

Well it is time for England's second game, and I'm hoping to see a very different performance to that against the USA. But more on that later. First, to yesterday's games. Argentina looked ominous as they spanked Korea Republic 4-1. I do wonder how effective playing four or five forwards against one of the tournament's better teams will be though. Great going forward, but the goal they let in was horrible.

Kaita must be ruing the day he boarded the plane to South Africa. What was he thinking. Until his stupidity got him sent off, Nigeria looked pretty much in control of the game against Greece and should probably have won.

The last game was great. Mexico played with some real heart and really well. In an earlier blog I mentioned I watched them play against England and Italy before the tournament and was very impressed. So the result against South Africa surprised me more than the game against France. This is what the fans really want to see.

So to today's games. Germany looked mightily impressive in their first game against Australia, but Serbia have a much better defence. So this one will be interesting, but the exciting pass and move play that Germany seem to have perfected should still be too much to handle. And all this from a young team. Could be a great team for years to come.






















The US vs Slovenia is interesting in a number of ways. USA could pass through with a draw and try to beat Algeria, hoping England beat Slovenia. If they win, they could try to win the group on goal difference. Coming second would probably mean meeting Germany, so that is not really a great option. I'm sure the US' mentality will push them for that win, but Slovenia is a useful outfit and resilient too. They had to overcome a pretty good Russian side in the qualification playoffs to get here.






















And then to the big one, or at least for me. I hope Barry's return will add some steel to our midfield, but really big parts of our tactics remain unresolved. I wonder if we will stick to 4-4-2, which means pushing Gerrard to the left. Something I really do not favour. Also, who is in goal: do you keep favour with Green after his howler? I would much rather see Hart in goal. Finally, Heskey was impressive against USA. HE missed a guilt edge chance to score, but won a lot of headers, put himself about a bit and set up Gerrard for the first goal. if we play 4-4-2, I think he would still be in the team for me. Finally, we need Rooney to wake up. He has to play a lot better. A lot rests on his shoulders, but he is a confident guy and I am sure he will rise to the challenge.






















Come on England!

Updated Simulator June 17

From Javier...

So now that each team has played at least one game it is time to update the Simulator.

The first step is in the worksheet 'Group Stages': put in the results to date in the right input boxes reserved for scores.

The second step is to back to worksheet 'Setup' and hit the "Run Simulator" button. Now in the Simulator dialog box the key thing to remember is to check the box next to "Keep User Input Scores in the Model". This will keep the scores to date when the simulation is run and will not overwrite them.

What we have also done is to run the Simulator on 50% Model weighting and 50% User Input. And we have updated the User Team Weightings to reflect our subjective estimates of the strength of each team after having seen them play.

Below is the results of the Simulator with updated estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Compare this to out previous blog entry of Results of a 9999 Iteration Run to be able to observe the impact on estimated probabilities of games to date and user inputs.




South Africa now is estimated to have very low chances of making it to the second round after last night's match. Uruguay on the other hand has high chances (have increased to 86% from Simulator's previous estimate of 44%).

Spain, in spite of our generosity in the user inputs, has taken a considerable beating in probabilities both to pass to second round and to win the World Cup. This is just a reflection that last night's result has put Spain in harm's way of random/adverse events in the next two games; it is on precipice and does not have room for error. Switzerland has improved dramatically its chances of going to the second round and even of winning the World Cup (still low, but at 1.6% much higher than the previous estimate of 0.4%).

Greece suffers a dramatic drop in probabilities of success (15% chance of passing versus previous estimate of 64.5%), while Slovenia (now 47% from 16%), Japan (now 53% from 17%) and Korea Republic (now 63% from 18%) have increased considerably their chances of making it to second round.

Germany, Netherlands and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup have been revised upwards, with Germany now the second most probable team to win after Brazil.

Also to note is that the model gives a Brazil - Spain cross in the first round of the playoff stages a 30.7% estimate (use the "Analysis of Heads to Heads" utility within the Simulator dialog box to check this out).

Please update the results in your Simulators and use your own inputs.

June 17 Games (New Distribution)

From Javier...

Well Spain did not disappoint and returned to old habits (Spain 0, Switzerland 1). See my blog entry Reminiscences of a Middle-Aged Spaniard to see how long this curse has been going on for.
Two readings today in Spain: a positive one that this will jolt the team and get them out of complacency; a negative one that the team is going to get nervous and screw up again.

Seeing the game with other Spaniards it was like the ghost of World Cup's past visiting me again. These were some of the dejavu moments:

• "Don't worry, this game we are going to turn it around"
• "It does not matter, we still have two games"
• "This is good, next game they will be hungry"
• "Now that we are not favourites anymore we will perform better"
• "At least this is going to hurt the Socialist Government"

In the other games of yesterday Chile beat Honduras (1-0) and a good Uruguay with Diego Forlan in top form beat a weak South Africa 3-0. Good to see in the Uruguay games that going for victory with a strong mindset even in an adverse environment is rewarded handsomely.

We have updated the distributions of the model to reflect the forms of the teams in their first matches and are running the Simulator on 50% original inputs and 50% the new user inputs. The user inputs are a 50/50 blend of Sukhdev and my estimates.

Games for June 17:

Argentina if it plays with the same conviction as against Nigeria should not have a problem.

I think the model is wrong here and that Nigeria is more highly likely to take this. The Greek's mindset is very weak and the Nigerians need to redeem themselves in front of an African crowd.

















Interesting game. The French on a good day should take it but I am suspicious after their game against Uruguay. Mexico can surprise.