From Javier....
Every historical World Cup moment needs a classic commentary behind it. For England 1966 it is "..they think it is all over.....it is now". For Maradona's goal of 1986 against England (the legal goal) its Hugo Morales classic commentary with references to "....barrilete cosmico"....
For Iniesta's World Cup final goal, hands down the commentary that will be associated is Spanish National Radio:
Spanish National Radio Iniesta Goal
Script:
Goooooooooool!
Goooooooooool de Iniesta!
Goooooooooooool de España!
Gol de España! Gol de Iniesta! x7
Este gol puede valer un Mundial x 2 (this goal can be worth a World Cup)
Ha marcado Iniesta! (Iniesta scored)
Don Andres! Don Andres! Don Andres!
Ha marcado Iniesta! x4
Quedan dos y medio para llegar al final de la prorroga (two and a half left to end extra-time)
Ha marcado Iniesta! x2
España va a ser campeona del Mundo (Spain is going to be World Champion)
Ha marcado Iniesta!
Te quiero mucho Andres! Te quiero mucho! x3 (I love you Andres)
Viva Andres! Viva España!
Ha marcado Iniesta! Ha marcado España!
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
Final World Cup Goal Averages
From Javier...
Final goal average for WC 2010 is in the table together with historical goal averages of every World Cup since 1966. For both 1st round and 2nd round the top scoring game has been eliminated from each tournament to mitigate somewhat the effect of outliers.
The good news is that in the second round of WC 2010 the goal effectiveness was much improved compared to the first round.
The bad news is that average goals per game for the overall 2010 tournament was the second lowest of the historical record since 1966, only the poor WC 1990 showed less goal effectiveness.
The trend is worrying. What can FIFA do? I still think there are improvements that can be done in refereeing. The final game showed that there is still too much tolerance for skulduggery and the Dutch almost got away with their deliberate strategy. Also it is maddening to see the variance in criteria in referee decisions between different games and even in the same game. Again in the final Xavi was showed a yellow card for kicking a ball a few yards forward after a foul was given (after the 1-0), but a few minutes earlier Robben had escaped a second yellow card for a more deliberate and provocative identical play. I think a World Cup where a few red cards are handed out in the first games would set a tone of non-acceptance of violent play. And with respect to diving, a few red cards and FIFA acting on TV replays should help to limit play acting.
The jabulani ball needs to be changed. A more controllable and predictable ball will be welcome. Not nice to see the unexpected twists and turns of the ball in the air that forced so many goalkeeper errors. Also mid and long range passing was poor in the tournament (could this have benefited Spain's shorter passing game?). Remember the famous Roberto Carlos goal in a friendly against France. In this case the effect on the ball was because of the player's skill, not because of the properties of the ball.
Finally, why not change the actual dimensions of the goal? Just slightly. I know goalkeepers hate this, but this would result in an immediate increase in goals, shots on goal, will favour offensive teams and will penalise defensive tactics.
Final goal average for WC 2010 is in the table together with historical goal averages of every World Cup since 1966. For both 1st round and 2nd round the top scoring game has been eliminated from each tournament to mitigate somewhat the effect of outliers.
The good news is that in the second round of WC 2010 the goal effectiveness was much improved compared to the first round.
The bad news is that average goals per game for the overall 2010 tournament was the second lowest of the historical record since 1966, only the poor WC 1990 showed less goal effectiveness.
The trend is worrying. What can FIFA do? I still think there are improvements that can be done in refereeing. The final game showed that there is still too much tolerance for skulduggery and the Dutch almost got away with their deliberate strategy. Also it is maddening to see the variance in criteria in referee decisions between different games and even in the same game. Again in the final Xavi was showed a yellow card for kicking a ball a few yards forward after a foul was given (after the 1-0), but a few minutes earlier Robben had escaped a second yellow card for a more deliberate and provocative identical play. I think a World Cup where a few red cards are handed out in the first games would set a tone of non-acceptance of violent play. And with respect to diving, a few red cards and FIFA acting on TV replays should help to limit play acting.
The jabulani ball needs to be changed. A more controllable and predictable ball will be welcome. Not nice to see the unexpected twists and turns of the ball in the air that forced so many goalkeeper errors. Also mid and long range passing was poor in the tournament (could this have benefited Spain's shorter passing game?). Remember the famous Roberto Carlos goal in a friendly against France. In this case the effect on the ball was because of the player's skill, not because of the properties of the ball.
Finally, why not change the actual dimensions of the goal? Just slightly. I know goalkeepers hate this, but this would result in an immediate increase in goals, shots on goal, will favour offensive teams and will penalise defensive tactics.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Spain World Cup Champion
From Javier...
What can I say. I thought it would be very difficult that Spain would ever be World Cup champion. And here the team has made us champions before I am even 40. And not only has Spain won, but it has also created a unique football style that fans can recognise as truly Spanish.
We started this blog as a showcase for Monte Carlo Simulation. But we continuously have highlighted the importance of psychology and mental strength in football, away from tactics or skills. I was again very impressed yesterday with the Spanish team. The Dutch took the lessons of Spain's games against Switzerland, Chile and Paraguay and took them to a different level: interrupt play continuously, apply strong tackles to destabilise, intimidate and provoke the Spaniards, force Spain to commit mistakes. The Spanish players maintained their composure remarkably well in face of what the British press today defines as "thug football". The karate kick on Xabi Alonso is front page on the Times supplement today.
I understand the Dutch tactics and the rationale for them. But the Dutch also have to understand that Dutch football's image has taken a formidable beating, the romantic 74 team has been superseded by the ice hockey players of '10. Johann Cruyf must be very mad today. Probably the Dutch mistake was not to start pressure further up field (like Chile did so effectively against Spain) and to incur in unnecessary rough play that tested the referee's patience. And of course The Netherlands missed some very good chances.
I saw the game surrounded by a large contingent of political family, my wife, my four young daughters and my mother. I missed my dear father who passed away last year and would have loved so much to see Spain crowned champion. When Iniesta scored the goal the release of tension and sense of relief was overwhelming. Four grown-up men spent a minute hugging and jumping in front of the TV.
So never again will we have to endure that "Spain are perennial underachievers". For the future I hope team Spain does not become a parody of itself and tries to take the "tiki-taka" and passing football too far. We cannot forget that the semifinal against Germany was won with a classic English-style header by a defense on a corner kick. We cannot forget the wake-up call given to us by Switzerland in the first game and confuse possession with winning. At the same time, who would have guessed that even with our star striker (who adds Northern European style definition to the passing game) in very poor form that Spain would still make it.
Team Spain is an example of humility, hard work, teamwork and cool headedness. Great example for Spain's young and not-so-young. Hopefully the country's politicians will learn from the national side composed of a variety of regions and will start to exhibit the same attributes.
What can I say. I thought it would be very difficult that Spain would ever be World Cup champion. And here the team has made us champions before I am even 40. And not only has Spain won, but it has also created a unique football style that fans can recognise as truly Spanish.
We started this blog as a showcase for Monte Carlo Simulation. But we continuously have highlighted the importance of psychology and mental strength in football, away from tactics or skills. I was again very impressed yesterday with the Spanish team. The Dutch took the lessons of Spain's games against Switzerland, Chile and Paraguay and took them to a different level: interrupt play continuously, apply strong tackles to destabilise, intimidate and provoke the Spaniards, force Spain to commit mistakes. The Spanish players maintained their composure remarkably well in face of what the British press today defines as "thug football". The karate kick on Xabi Alonso is front page on the Times supplement today.
I understand the Dutch tactics and the rationale for them. But the Dutch also have to understand that Dutch football's image has taken a formidable beating, the romantic 74 team has been superseded by the ice hockey players of '10. Johann Cruyf must be very mad today. Probably the Dutch mistake was not to start pressure further up field (like Chile did so effectively against Spain) and to incur in unnecessary rough play that tested the referee's patience. And of course The Netherlands missed some very good chances.
I saw the game surrounded by a large contingent of political family, my wife, my four young daughters and my mother. I missed my dear father who passed away last year and would have loved so much to see Spain crowned champion. When Iniesta scored the goal the release of tension and sense of relief was overwhelming. Four grown-up men spent a minute hugging and jumping in front of the TV.
So never again will we have to endure that "Spain are perennial underachievers". For the future I hope team Spain does not become a parody of itself and tries to take the "tiki-taka" and passing football too far. We cannot forget that the semifinal against Germany was won with a classic English-style header by a defense on a corner kick. We cannot forget the wake-up call given to us by Switzerland in the first game and confuse possession with winning. At the same time, who would have guessed that even with our star striker (who adds Northern European style definition to the passing game) in very poor form that Spain would still make it.
Team Spain is an example of humility, hard work, teamwork and cool headedness. Great example for Spain's young and not-so-young. Hopefully the country's politicians will learn from the national side composed of a variety of regions and will start to exhibit the same attributes.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Spain - Netherlands in Final
From Javier....
I am in Spain right now and the environment is electrified. As a country we have set aside our huge problems for the time being, at least until next week. We are in awe of the best Spanish team we have ever seen, a team that is writing football history.
Spain vs Netherlands in the final of the World Cup on Sunday. For the first time ever Spain makes it to the final, for Netherlands it will be the third final after 1974 and 1978.
I am in Spain right now and the environment is electrified. As a country we have set aside our huge problems for the time being, at least until next week. We are in awe of the best Spanish team we have ever seen, a team that is writing football history.
I saw the Germany - Spain game surrounded by dear friends and family. For us middle-aged Spaniards it was almost too difficult to believe that not only we defeated Germany, but that we completely outclassed and outplayed the Germans. It looks like the demons that I mentioned in my Reminiscences of a Middle Aged Spaniard have been discarded. And the tough Swiss medicine that we took in Spain's first game in the World Cup now looks like a blessing in disguise.
The biggest issue for Spain is overconfidence and relaxation ahead of the game against The Netherlands. But it was reassuring to see that the players have reacted with humility to their victory over Germany and with the message that the job is not yet done. The Spanish fans may think this is over, but the players and coach are the ones that matter.
The Simulator estimates for Sunday's final are below. The reader will notice that in this blog or the Simulator we do not mention the game of semifinal losers on Saturday. That is because Sukhdev and I believe that match is a non-event. I for one will not even watch that game, which is the only one played in the tournament that has no bearing on the final.
It is worth mentioning that in the original Simulator run the estimated probabilities indicated Spain was second most likely to win and Netherlands was fourth. Not bad that the top two finalists were top four in the Simulator runs.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
July 07 Game
From Javier....
The World Cup has this thing about history. Very few teams are allowed into the hallowed halls of finalists. Therefore if history commands, Germany will beat Spain today and the final will be Germany - Netherlands, a repeat of the historic 1974 final. Hopefully Spain will trounce history.
In yesterday's game Netherlands defeated Uruguay 3-2. The game for me lost its lustre with the clear offside in the second Dutch goal. The game at that moment was at a very interesting impasse in the second half - we need FIFA to allow TV replays by the next World Cup. These referee mistakes, and there have been a lot of them in the tournament, are a tarnish to the beautiful game.
Here are the Simulator estimates for today's game. A little wishful thinking you might say. But I refuse to change the ex-ante estimates with Germany's performance in the last two games. Germany was not really tested in either match and today they are actually playing a team with a mid-field. Subjectively the probabilities for me are 50/50.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
July 06 Game & Updated Probabilities
From Javier....
We are down to the last four teams for the semifinals. Uruguay, two times World Cup winner in 1930 and 1950 (in the biggest sporting upset in history played in Brazil against Brazil) and semifinalist in 1970 against the Brazil of Pele. Germany, three times World Cup winner (1954, 1974, 1990) and multiple times finalist (1966,1982,1986,2002). Netherlands, World Cup finalist in 1974 and 1978. And Spain....... well Spain was in the top four in 1950.
Today Netherlands takes on Uruguay. The Dutch better not be overconfident, because Uruguay is not a pushover. The Netherlands were lucky with Brazil in that the Brazilians selfdestructed. The best news for Netherlands is that Uruguay's star striker Suarez has to sit out the game after his "Hand of God" against Ghana. The Uruguayans have performed beyond what anyone expected of them, they are heroes in their home country no matter what and will be under less pressure tonight than the Netherlands. But the Netherlands have performed admirably as a solid block. Great game.
Updated estimated probabilities are shown in the adjunct table. Netherlands has higher probabilities to win the World Cup than Germany because it has theoretically an easier path, with the Germans taking on the Simulator favourite Spain tomorrow (more on that next blog entry).
Monday, July 5, 2010
World Cup Diary July 05
From Sukhdev in South Africa...
I'm at the gate waiting to leave Cape Town and have some time before boarding to reflect on the journey I have taken.
I arrived in South Africa without too many preconceptions of what to expect. So I was open to being impressed, and though there have been some hiccups, I have been very impressed.
First and foremost, all the people in South Africa have been very friendly without regard to colour, creed, religion or whether they were from South Africa, or elsewhere. Having travelled both alone and with friends, I have seen that it was easy to make new friends and be catered for as a group. I did not see or hear from other travellers any issues with security and, as that was a major issue for people who would not travel here, it has become very apparent they were plainly wrong.
After the Uruguay vs Ghana game, transport back to Johannesburg from the stadium was efficient. I took a train to Jo'burg and walked from the stadium to my hostel, with two of the guys I was with. A police car stopped us and actually gave us a lift to the hostel saying it was not the best neighbourhood to walk in, so you still need to take some precautions. The arrival at the hostel was greeting by cheers by other travellers for the police car for the taxi ride.
Organisation has been great, though when things did go wrong or someone wanted to do something the organisers did not think of (see below), stewards were not able to help. A lack of training of the hundreds of stewards and police at these points became evident. But on the whole I cannot complain on a virtually easy trip to South Africa.
The knock-on effect of not enough people travelling to South Africa was the lack of supporters from the various countries participating. However, the Africans made up the numbers and at least black market tickets remained within the reach of all fans. Most tickets, especially in the group games, were sold at a fraction of the face value. Also, I saw a different way of supporting a team from the controversial vuvuzela to the african dancing where entire seating areas seem to have choreographed moves that were great to watch, especially if a game was a bit boring.
Even watching the games in the FIFA fan fests were great. I watched the England vs Germany game in one, and though the result made me very sad, the spectacle was good. I also watched the Brazil vs Holland game in a packed out fan fest in New Town in Johannesburg. It was almost like being at the game: lots of cheering, vuvuzelas and passion.
In the end, I had an opportunity to watch seven games. Some of them dragged on such as Switzerland vs Honduras in the cold at Bloemfontain to the classic of Uruguay vs Ghana. I have always wanted to see a penalty shoot out live, and though the Ghana team was unlucky, the atmosphere was electric, as clichéd as that sounds. I have found most games, especially the group games, had better second halves than first halves, which may reflect the pressure many of the teams were under, and fewer classics to be found.
Saying that the knockout stages have not been found too wanting. The Germans seem to have hit high gear, and the Spain vs Germany semi final has all the hallmarks of a great game. Germany beating England 4-1 was a little hard to take, but at least I was at the Argentina vs Germany game to see another fours goals from the German goal machine. Both teams seemed to be a little light in midfield, and that is where Spain excel, so I cannot see a repeat for the Germans. In fact I expect Spain to win. Being at the Argentina game, I could see how much space and time Swinesteiger had in the middle of the field. Though Ozil is getting all the plaudits, Swinesteiger's presence went unchecked by an Argentine midfield that only really contained Mascherano.
The Argentina vs Germany game was my last, and in Cape Town, which with Durban are my two favourite cities. However, I think the stadium in Cape Town is located in the wrong place on the coast. This limits access and many fans probably missed Germany's early goal because of the delays in getting in due to the sheer number of people trying to get in. At least it was good natured.
Apart from the football, Cape Town has a number of other things on offer from the V&A Waterfront and hiking Table Mountain, to taking a car to Cape Point and the numerous wine farms.
Durban was also a great tourist destination, where I went on safari to see elephants, rhino, giraffes, buffalo amongst others, but unfortunately no big cats this time. The beach is good and safe, and the water is warmer than in Cape Town.
I guess the only down points came in Rustenburg, where stewards did not know the names or how to get to the various park and rides. Maps and better training would have been useful here. Also, I arrived to the Uruguay vs Ghana game 30 minutes into the first half because stewards at the game gave me incorrect directions, and transport only moving in one direction. The volunteer stewards have done very well, but have been let down by the organisers who could have trained them better. Even during the most frustrating times, the stewards remained upbeat and tried to help where they could, so I cannot fault their good nature.
Anyway, now it is time to board and I am definitely ready to stop travelling from city to city and get back to my own bed. But South Africa is on my list of places to visit again.
I'm at the gate waiting to leave Cape Town and have some time before boarding to reflect on the journey I have taken.
I arrived in South Africa without too many preconceptions of what to expect. So I was open to being impressed, and though there have been some hiccups, I have been very impressed.
First and foremost, all the people in South Africa have been very friendly without regard to colour, creed, religion or whether they were from South Africa, or elsewhere. Having travelled both alone and with friends, I have seen that it was easy to make new friends and be catered for as a group. I did not see or hear from other travellers any issues with security and, as that was a major issue for people who would not travel here, it has become very apparent they were plainly wrong.
After the Uruguay vs Ghana game, transport back to Johannesburg from the stadium was efficient. I took a train to Jo'burg and walked from the stadium to my hostel, with two of the guys I was with. A police car stopped us and actually gave us a lift to the hostel saying it was not the best neighbourhood to walk in, so you still need to take some precautions. The arrival at the hostel was greeting by cheers by other travellers for the police car for the taxi ride.
Organisation has been great, though when things did go wrong or someone wanted to do something the organisers did not think of (see below), stewards were not able to help. A lack of training of the hundreds of stewards and police at these points became evident. But on the whole I cannot complain on a virtually easy trip to South Africa.
The knock-on effect of not enough people travelling to South Africa was the lack of supporters from the various countries participating. However, the Africans made up the numbers and at least black market tickets remained within the reach of all fans. Most tickets, especially in the group games, were sold at a fraction of the face value. Also, I saw a different way of supporting a team from the controversial vuvuzela to the african dancing where entire seating areas seem to have choreographed moves that were great to watch, especially if a game was a bit boring.
Even watching the games in the FIFA fan fests were great. I watched the England vs Germany game in one, and though the result made me very sad, the spectacle was good. I also watched the Brazil vs Holland game in a packed out fan fest in New Town in Johannesburg. It was almost like being at the game: lots of cheering, vuvuzelas and passion.
In the end, I had an opportunity to watch seven games. Some of them dragged on such as Switzerland vs Honduras in the cold at Bloemfontain to the classic of Uruguay vs Ghana. I have always wanted to see a penalty shoot out live, and though the Ghana team was unlucky, the atmosphere was electric, as clichéd as that sounds. I have found most games, especially the group games, had better second halves than first halves, which may reflect the pressure many of the teams were under, and fewer classics to be found.
Saying that the knockout stages have not been found too wanting. The Germans seem to have hit high gear, and the Spain vs Germany semi final has all the hallmarks of a great game. Germany beating England 4-1 was a little hard to take, but at least I was at the Argentina vs Germany game to see another fours goals from the German goal machine. Both teams seemed to be a little light in midfield, and that is where Spain excel, so I cannot see a repeat for the Germans. In fact I expect Spain to win. Being at the Argentina game, I could see how much space and time Swinesteiger had in the middle of the field. Though Ozil is getting all the plaudits, Swinesteiger's presence went unchecked by an Argentine midfield that only really contained Mascherano.
The Argentina vs Germany game was my last, and in Cape Town, which with Durban are my two favourite cities. However, I think the stadium in Cape Town is located in the wrong place on the coast. This limits access and many fans probably missed Germany's early goal because of the delays in getting in due to the sheer number of people trying to get in. At least it was good natured.
Apart from the football, Cape Town has a number of other things on offer from the V&A Waterfront and hiking Table Mountain, to taking a car to Cape Point and the numerous wine farms.
Durban was also a great tourist destination, where I went on safari to see elephants, rhino, giraffes, buffalo amongst others, but unfortunately no big cats this time. The beach is good and safe, and the water is warmer than in Cape Town.
I guess the only down points came in Rustenburg, where stewards did not know the names or how to get to the various park and rides. Maps and better training would have been useful here. Also, I arrived to the Uruguay vs Ghana game 30 minutes into the first half because stewards at the game gave me incorrect directions, and transport only moving in one direction. The volunteer stewards have done very well, but have been let down by the organisers who could have trained them better. Even during the most frustrating times, the stewards remained upbeat and tried to help where they could, so I cannot fault their good nature.
Anyway, now it is time to board and I am definitely ready to stop travelling from city to city and get back to my own bed. But South Africa is on my list of places to visit again.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
History, Panenka & July 3 Games
From Javier....
Cannot be objective here. Never has Spain had a better chance of beating its no-semifinal curse. The Paraguayans will play to keep this at 0-0. I hope Spain shows better effectiveness today. It looks like Torres is starting. Still do not understand why coaches line up non-fit players. Why don't they keep unfit star players on the bench like W. Germany did in 1986 with Rummenigge, to bring them out in the second half to turn around difficult situations.
Wow. This is why football is the greatest sport in the world. Yesterday we had two games. On paper the most attractive game was the Brazil - Netherlands, which turned out to have a dramatic outcome when Netherlands upset the Brazilians 2-1. This would have been the focus of today's blog entry under normal circumstances.
But the circumstances were not normal. Uruguay - Ghana was the stuff of World Cup magic, one of those dramas that will reverberate throughout history. Time will tell if it will make the World Cup Mythical Game list. A Hollywood scriptwriter could not have come up with a plot with more twists, heros and anti-heroes than in this match.
This was the script: An African nation, with one billion people behind it, plays a small South American nation in the quarterfinals of the first World Cup celebrated on African soil. The African nation scores in the last minute of the first half and is outplaying formidably the other team. In the second half the South American nation scores from a twisting strike from a set piece and the game goes to extra-time.
Then the scriptwriter goes crazy. In the last minute of extra-time the African nation has an incredible chance and one of the other team's players (their star striker to boot) first deflects a ball out from the goal line with his feet, and then in second instance with his hands in a goalkeeper-like save. The referee sees the save, shows a red card to the South American player and signals penalty......... and the penalty kick hits the cross bar. Off to penalty shootout. The African nation misses twice, the South American once, and in the decisive penalty kick a "crazy" South American player tries out a Panenka penalty and puts it in. Note to scripwriter: Please try to keep a plausible storyline.
All of the above happened in yesterday's game and more. Some notes on the drama:
(1) The tragic hero. Suarez, the Uruguayan striker, saved his team in the last minute of play with an historical interception on the goal line (actually is was a pretty good save that would make a goalkeeper proud). He was shown justly a direct red card and will not be able to play the next game. But his ultimate sacrifice allowed Uruguay the chance to win the penalty shootout.
(2) The goalkeeper. The Uruguayan goalkeeper was full of confidence and menacing during the shootout. He stopped two penalties. I think the Uruguayans must have trained on the penalties very hard.
(3) The "crazy" hero. Abreu is nicknamed el "loco" in Spanish, that means "crazy". I hope the reader comprehends the cold blood that is required for a player in such a dramatic moment like the decisive penalty of the quarterfinals of a World Cup to try out a Panenka penalty. What is a "Panenka" penalty? The two following YouTube links will show you the original Panenka penalty by the Czech player of that name in a European Championship final and the effort that Zidane did in the 2006 World Cup final that almost missed.
YouTubeOriginalPanenkaPenalty still the original is the most beautiful one
(4) The tragic anti-hero. Gyan missed an historical chance to enter the history books my missing the last minute penalty. Some players never get over this. I hope he can.
What about today's games? Simulator probabilities are below:
I think this is the most equal estimated probabilities of the Simulator ever for a match-up. Another historical game. Memories of World Cup finals 1986, 1990 and quarterfinal 2006 are rekindled.
I think this is the most equal estimated probabilities of the Simulator ever for a match-up. Another historical game. Memories of World Cup finals 1986, 1990 and quarterfinal 2006 are rekindled.
Cannot be objective here. Never has Spain had a better chance of beating its no-semifinal curse. The Paraguayans will play to keep this at 0-0. I hope Spain shows better effectiveness today. It looks like Torres is starting. Still do not understand why coaches line up non-fit players. Why don't they keep unfit star players on the bench like W. Germany did in 1986 with Rummenigge, to bring them out in the second half to turn around difficult situations.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
July 2 Games and Updated Probabilities
From Javier...
Second day of football withdrawal syndrome and already the shakes are gone. Maybe football is not that addictive.
Now that there are only 8 teams left we thought it would be interesting to update the Simulator's estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Results are below:
Brazil is favoured to win the World Cup. Paradoxically because of Brazil's tough match on Friday Brazil's probabilities of reaching the semifinals are lower than Uruguay or Spain. But if Brazil beats Netherlands its probabilities of winning the tournament will increase dramatically. This illustrates the path dependence we mentioned in a previous entry.
Likewise Germany and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup are hurt by their suicidal match up on Saturday. The winner will emerge with enhanced probabilities of winning the tournament.
What a great match. Don't miss it, these Brazil - Netherlands games are a classic of the World Cup.
Uruguay should be able to overcome the young Ghanians. However Ghana showed a lot of spirit in the last game and will not be a pushover.
Second day of football withdrawal syndrome and already the shakes are gone. Maybe football is not that addictive.
Now that there are only 8 teams left we thought it would be interesting to update the Simulator's estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Results are below:
Brazil is favoured to win the World Cup. Paradoxically because of Brazil's tough match on Friday Brazil's probabilities of reaching the semifinals are lower than Uruguay or Spain. But if Brazil beats Netherlands its probabilities of winning the tournament will increase dramatically. This illustrates the path dependence we mentioned in a previous entry.
Likewise Germany and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup are hurt by their suicidal match up on Saturday. The winner will emerge with enhanced probabilities of winning the tournament.
What a great match. Don't miss it, these Brazil - Netherlands games are a classic of the World Cup.
Uruguay should be able to overcome the young Ghanians. However Ghana showed a lot of spirit in the last game and will not be a pushover.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Football Withdrawal Syndrome Kicks In
From Javier...
Two full days ahead without matches. Get ready for the shivers of football withdrawal syndrome. What will we do? Well look at repetitions I guess and YouTube videos of best goals to date.
First let me say how relieved I am at Spain's performance tonight. In spite of playing one of the toughest defense in the world, the players kept their calm and maintained their strategy and tempo. Once the Portuguese were a goal behind from the billiard-like passing Spanish goal they really did not have an answer. I did not count a single shot on the Spanish goal from the 1-0. It must be so frustrating to be one goal behind and not be able to get possession. A few notes about the game:
Two full days ahead without matches. Get ready for the shivers of football withdrawal syndrome. What will we do? Well look at repetitions I guess and YouTube videos of best goals to date.
First let me say how relieved I am at Spain's performance tonight. In spite of playing one of the toughest defense in the world, the players kept their calm and maintained their strategy and tempo. Once the Portuguese were a goal behind from the billiard-like passing Spanish goal they really did not have an answer. I did not count a single shot on the Spanish goal from the 1-0. It must be so frustrating to be one goal behind and not be able to get possession. A few notes about the game:
- In a previous entry I speculated about Spain that the "mental toughness of this new generation is very different".... and this was proved tonight. While I was close to despair early in the second half imagining how tragedy would play out, these guys kept their cool, kept possession, kept their passing game. And when they were 1-0 up they did not lose focus, rather they even sharpened it more.
- The change of Llorente on for Torres was brilliant; it added that extra spice needed to wear down the Portuguese defense and make their chances of a mistake just that extra bit more probable..... and the Portuguese changes were a disaster.....Spanish coach definitely outperformed Portuguese coach tonight
- Much was made of the Portuguese defense, but the ability of the Spaniards to recover the ball quickly and frequently in threatening positions was admirable; the Portuguese were very frustrated
- Much has been said that the Spaniards have weak physical form and lose steam over the game; tonight I saw no problems with form and rather at the end the Spanish form was better than the Portuguese
- Spain had luck, all the luck it missed against Switzerland
- Still Spain has a lot of possession and not enough effectiveness
- Casillas seems a little bit shaky....they will test from 25/30 yards in the next game
- With hindsight, the Swiss medicine was the best pill that a Doctor could order for the hyped Spanish players - but only with hindsight!
So we have this weekend two big World Cup classics:
Argentina - Germany (just like 2006)
Netherlands - Brazil (a common feature of World Cups)
And two other games: Uruguay - Ghana and Spain - Paraguay.
Four of the teams speak Spanish. Not sure if that has any relevance, rather an indicator of how well South America is doing in this World Cup. Spain has never had it so good to make it to the semifinals...... well, that is what we thought in 2002 and crashed against the South Koreans. But if Spain plays like today and Paraguay plays like today there is no doubt Spain will make it. I favour Uruguay over Ghana, Argentina over Germany and Brazil over Netherlands. We will see what the Simulator says over the next two days.
In the meantime, go cold turkey!
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
June 29 Games
From Javier...
Third day of playoff games were played with the bad smell still lingering in the air of yesterday's refereeing disasters. Those kind of mistakes take away from the beauty of the game.
Netherlands and Brazil easily defeated Slovakia and Chile. Chile was supposed to be one of the surprises of the tournament. I guess sound defeats against Spain and Brazil show that Chile's victories over Honduras and Switzerland were overstated in their significance. The Slovaks left the World Cup with the pride of their historical victory over Italy.
Today's games according to the Simulator:
Paraguay meets Japan. Why does this have penalty shoot-out written all over it (no penalty shoot-outs to date).
Spain has a very tough match against Portugal. The Portuguese know the Spaniards very well and will make their progress difficult. Cristiano Ronaldo will be the key.
Third day of playoff games were played with the bad smell still lingering in the air of yesterday's refereeing disasters. Those kind of mistakes take away from the beauty of the game.
Netherlands and Brazil easily defeated Slovakia and Chile. Chile was supposed to be one of the surprises of the tournament. I guess sound defeats against Spain and Brazil show that Chile's victories over Honduras and Switzerland were overstated in their significance. The Slovaks left the World Cup with the pride of their historical victory over Italy.
Today's games according to the Simulator:
Paraguay meets Japan. Why does this have penalty shoot-out written all over it (no penalty shoot-outs to date).
Spain has a very tough match against Portugal. The Portuguese know the Spaniards very well and will make their progress difficult. Cristiano Ronaldo will be the key.
Monday, June 28, 2010
World Cup Diary June 27
From Sukhdev in South Africa....
On Friday I undertook the long journey by car from Port Elizabeth to Bloemfontain, which amounted to 700 kms. The scenery was amazing, going through lush greenery and driving through winding mountain roads. Every now and then I would see troops of monkeys crossing the roads, and breathtaking mountain views.
In Bloemfontain I met up with a number of mates, so now I am travelling with friends, which is nice though it was easy to meet people in South Africa. Both locals and other football fans have been very approachable.
The people in Bloemfontain were incredibly friendly, but the place was extremely cold. Unfortunately, the Switzerland vs Honduras game was a anticlimax to the day and the drive was the highlight. The ground was decidedly fuller in the second half than the first. I suspect the organisers allowed people in as the ground looked half empty. This had a knock on effect on the atmosphere. Apart from a small pocket of Hondurans cheering sporadically, the ground was fairly quiet. Even vuvuzelas sounds were dampened.
In contrast, the bars were a sea of red and loud singing and bell ringing could be heard from far outside the Waterfront mall.
On Saturday, we had another long drive, about 550 kms to Rustenburg. The scenery was a lot less impressive, but still interesting. After a few hundred kilometres I must admit, I was tired of driving.
Rustenburg is probably the worst organised place I have been to in South Africa. It was frustrating trying to navigate the different park 'n' rides, but it's still hard to get annoyed with the freindly staff, though they provided very little useful information.
The game, Ghana vs USA, unlike the day before, was a great highlight in the day. From the time we stepped onto the bus with Ghana and US fans trading chanting very loudly, to being in the ground right between Ghanian and US fans and a great game, the whole experience made all the frustrations worthwhile.
Today, Sunday, we drove to Johannesburg. I had my first experience in a fan park. The crowd was good, but most of the fans were people from various countries supporting the two teams playing, so the atmosphere was a little artificial. The place lacked the passion that real fans for a team provides.
But maybe I am biased, as the game I watched was England vs Germany. After that game and the later game also, how can FIFA continue to rule out TV replays for key game changing decisions. Saying that, the Germans looked too good for the English and probably deserved to go through. I can only hope we now let Capello go and get in a manager who understands our players, and doesn't insist on playing his own style.
I attended the second game, Argentina vs Mexico. Soccer City Stadium must be one of the best stadiums I have been to. It is steeply banked and sounds reverberate around. At times I couldn't hear my friends shouting at me right into my ear for the vuvuzelas.
The Argentines turned out in force. At the end the Argentines attacked in the first half, Argentine flags waved and fans jumped and chanted relentlessly. The passion was obvious. Just like in the England, there was a controversial decision on a goal. Argentina's first goal was clearly offside. The whole crowd saw it, and after texting a number of friends who were watching on TV, it was confirmed. Even the linesman seemed to have seen it, but the ref 'bottled it'.
So a few more teams are going home. So are England. However, I intend to keep enjoying the World Cup, though it may now feel like being at someone else's party.
On Friday I undertook the long journey by car from Port Elizabeth to Bloemfontain, which amounted to 700 kms. The scenery was amazing, going through lush greenery and driving through winding mountain roads. Every now and then I would see troops of monkeys crossing the roads, and breathtaking mountain views.
In Bloemfontain I met up with a number of mates, so now I am travelling with friends, which is nice though it was easy to meet people in South Africa. Both locals and other football fans have been very approachable.
The people in Bloemfontain were incredibly friendly, but the place was extremely cold. Unfortunately, the Switzerland vs Honduras game was a anticlimax to the day and the drive was the highlight. The ground was decidedly fuller in the second half than the first. I suspect the organisers allowed people in as the ground looked half empty. This had a knock on effect on the atmosphere. Apart from a small pocket of Hondurans cheering sporadically, the ground was fairly quiet. Even vuvuzelas sounds were dampened.
In contrast, the bars were a sea of red and loud singing and bell ringing could be heard from far outside the Waterfront mall.
On Saturday, we had another long drive, about 550 kms to Rustenburg. The scenery was a lot less impressive, but still interesting. After a few hundred kilometres I must admit, I was tired of driving.
Rustenburg is probably the worst organised place I have been to in South Africa. It was frustrating trying to navigate the different park 'n' rides, but it's still hard to get annoyed with the freindly staff, though they provided very little useful information.
The game, Ghana vs USA, unlike the day before, was a great highlight in the day. From the time we stepped onto the bus with Ghana and US fans trading chanting very loudly, to being in the ground right between Ghanian and US fans and a great game, the whole experience made all the frustrations worthwhile.
Today, Sunday, we drove to Johannesburg. I had my first experience in a fan park. The crowd was good, but most of the fans were people from various countries supporting the two teams playing, so the atmosphere was a little artificial. The place lacked the passion that real fans for a team provides.
But maybe I am biased, as the game I watched was England vs Germany. After that game and the later game also, how can FIFA continue to rule out TV replays for key game changing decisions. Saying that, the Germans looked too good for the English and probably deserved to go through. I can only hope we now let Capello go and get in a manager who understands our players, and doesn't insist on playing his own style.
I attended the second game, Argentina vs Mexico. Soccer City Stadium must be one of the best stadiums I have been to. It is steeply banked and sounds reverberate around. At times I couldn't hear my friends shouting at me right into my ear for the vuvuzelas.
The Argentines turned out in force. At the end the Argentines attacked in the first half, Argentine flags waved and fans jumped and chanted relentlessly. The passion was obvious. Just like in the England, there was a controversial decision on a goal. Argentina's first goal was clearly offside. The whole crowd saw it, and after texting a number of friends who were watching on TV, it was confirmed. Even the linesman seemed to have seen it, but the ref 'bottled it'.
So a few more teams are going home. So are England. However, I intend to keep enjoying the World Cup, though it may now feel like being at someone else's party.
June 28 Games
From Javier....
Chile will be a tough cookie for Brazil to crack if the Chileans play with the same impetus as against Spain. Brazil needs an early goal or things may become uphill.
Bad taste from yesterday's games still lingers. Does not matter that Germany and Argentina deserved to go through. Referee decisions had major impacts on results and "perverse the course of justice".
June 28 match-ups:
Netherlands will not underestimate Slovakia after seeing how the Slovakians dealt with Italy. Still Netherlands should go through.
Chile will be a tough cookie for Brazil to crack if the Chileans play with the same impetus as against Spain. Brazil needs an early goal or things may become uphill.
World Cup's Day of Infamy
From Javier...
German goalkeeper suspended in air as he sees the ball crashing deep within the German goal.
In the Argentina - Mexico game, the first goal was preceded by a one yard offside by Tevez. Again the linesman error had a great influence on the game's result.
Certainly the debate over the next few days will center around the use of technology to avoid these refereeing disasters. FIFA will be under great pressure. The referees in the coming games are going to be very nervous and this can lead to more errors.
Second day of playoff games in World Cup are a day of scandal. In the England - Germany game, the Uruguayan linesman incredibly did not see what everybody else in the stadium could see: a Lampard strike hit the bar and bounced at least a foot inside the German goal. That would have been 2-2 and the game could have been very different from that moment on. No doubt that the English were incredibly damaged by this decision.
German goalkeeper suspended in air as he sees the ball crashing deep within the German goal.
In the Argentina - Mexico game, the first goal was preceded by a one yard offside by Tevez. Again the linesman error had a great influence on the game's result.Certainly the debate over the next few days will center around the use of technology to avoid these refereeing disasters. FIFA will be under great pressure. The referees in the coming games are going to be very nervous and this can lead to more errors.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
June 27 Games
From Javier....
Uruguay defeated South Korea 2-1 in the first play-off game. The South Koreans surprised with the offensive capabilities and their defensive weaknesses. The first goal by each time was preceded by goalkeeper howlers, one of the themes of this World Cup. The second Uruguayan goal by Suarez was a beauty. Reminded me of a mirror image of Italy's first goal against Germany in the semifinal of World Cup 2006.
In the second of yesterday's games team USA's luck ran out in extra-time (USA 1, Ghana 2). When it seemed that the Americans had the game under way they conceded an early goal in extra-time and this time there was no miracle, even with their goalkeeper Howard in the Ghanan area at the end. Bill Clinton spent the game explaining to Mick Jagger the mysteries of "soccer".
The Simulator has estimated these probabilities for today's games:
A classic World Cup match up. I would not be able to describe with words how badly the English want to beat Germany. Don't miss this, drama is assured.
Argentina should be able to beat Mexico, but I would not underestimate the ability of the Mexicans to put up a fight.
Uruguay defeated South Korea 2-1 in the first play-off game. The South Koreans surprised with the offensive capabilities and their defensive weaknesses. The first goal by each time was preceded by goalkeeper howlers, one of the themes of this World Cup. The second Uruguayan goal by Suarez was a beauty. Reminded me of a mirror image of Italy's first goal against Germany in the semifinal of World Cup 2006.
In the second of yesterday's games team USA's luck ran out in extra-time (USA 1, Ghana 2). When it seemed that the Americans had the game under way they conceded an early goal in extra-time and this time there was no miracle, even with their goalkeeper Howard in the Ghanan area at the end. Bill Clinton spent the game explaining to Mick Jagger the mysteries of "soccer".
The Simulator has estimated these probabilities for today's games:
A classic World Cup match up. I would not be able to describe with words how badly the English want to beat Germany. Don't miss this, drama is assured.
Argentina should be able to beat Mexico, but I would not underestimate the ability of the Mexicans to put up a fight.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Goal Average Poor
From Javier.....
We have updated goal statistics from our previous entry World up Goal Statistics. The results are below, this is estimated eliminating the highest scoreline game in each tournament. The trend is not good. And if the inertia of the two previous World Cups continues the goal effectiveness in the playoff round will be dreadful.
I bet the thinking heads at FIFA will take this into consideration. Potential changes include actually making the goals slightly bigger.
We have updated goal statistics from our previous entry World up Goal Statistics. The results are below, this is estimated eliminating the highest scoreline game in each tournament. The trend is not good. And if the inertia of the two previous World Cups continues the goal effectiveness in the playoff round will be dreadful.
I bet the thinking heads at FIFA will take this into consideration. Potential changes include actually making the goals slightly bigger.
June 26 Playoff Games
From Javier....
We have had a lot of drama in this World Cup to date. Now the real drama begins. Pure head to head battles, with extra-times and the drama of the penalty shoot-out. The teams that keep a cool head will progress.
Team USA takes on Africa's only remaining hope. Referee might be sympathetic to Ghana to keep an African team alive. The Americans will do well to ignore referee decisions and focus on the objective as they have been doing until now. If USA progresses will be key for "Soccer's" future in America as per previous blog entry.
The Uruguayans are one of the pleasant surprises of the first round and Diego Forlan is one of the players of the tournament. But they will find the South Korean nut tough to crack. Will require patience, skill and luck. Careful with the Korean's counters and plays from set pieces.
We have had a lot of drama in this World Cup to date. Now the real drama begins. Pure head to head battles, with extra-times and the drama of the penalty shoot-out. The teams that keep a cool head will progress.
Team USA takes on Africa's only remaining hope. Referee might be sympathetic to Ghana to keep an African team alive. The Americans will do well to ignore referee decisions and focus on the objective as they have been doing until now. If USA progresses will be key for "Soccer's" future in America as per previous blog entry.
The Uruguayans are one of the pleasant surprises of the first round and Diego Forlan is one of the players of the tournament. But they will find the South Korean nut tough to crack. Will require patience, skill and luck. Careful with the Korean's counters and plays from set pieces.
June 25 Updated Probabilities
From Javier....
No surprises on the last day of group stage matches. Spain and Chile both passed in Group H, while the anti-football Swiss team was deservedly rewarded with a trip back to Geneva. Good to see the Spanish team being able to beat a very determined Chile team, there was a moment until the goalkeeper howler that led to the first Spanish goal that I thought this was going to be a long night. At the end both teams were content with the 2-1 given the 0-0 at the Switzerland - Honduras game.
Brazil and Portugal tied in a stinker 0-0 while Ivory Coast defeated North Korea, 3-0. The North Koreans are off back home to explain to their Supreme Leader what has happened. I blame capitalist referees and balls.
We have updated the Simulator with today's results and updated user inputs, which now ignores the 16 teams that have packed their bags. Results are below. Brazil is still favourite with a 22.0% of taking the tournament followed by a recovered Spain with 18.1%. Argentina and Germany are next in the pack with 10.2% and 9.7%, respectively.
Friday, June 25, 2010
World Cup Upsets
From Javier...
We have updated our World Cup historical upsets to reflect yesterday's games.
June 25 Games
From Javier....
Slovakia shocked reining champions Italy out of the World Cup (3-2). The Italians did not seem to get in the game until about minute 70 but once in seemed to be able to score with ease. The Italian second goal by Quagliarella was masterful. Pepe missed a last second equalizer that probably kept him all up night.
New Zealand left the World Cup undefeated. Not bad for a team that features amateurs. In Group E Japan is the companion of Netherlands to the next round.
Today's games:
What a game. Portugal will go for victory to avoid Spain (I hope) in next round. The Brazilians will like to show their mother country a thing or two. Should be very open play. Ivory Coast will need to score about 10 goals against North Korea for Portugal to not pass in case of their defeat.
If I was the Ivory Coast manager I would have made his players see the Spain - Malta match of 1983
I mean, you might as well go for it, what is it to lose. If Brazil beats Portugal you will feel stupid if you did not try.
Ayy, my heart trembles. Spain will be playing with a very offensive line-up, only victory can do. I hope ghosts of World Cup pasts wait for another day.
Sweet revenge. The conservative Swiss having to score goals against a wall of 10 defenders. Hah! Take some of your own medicine.
Simulator estimated probabilities of reaching second round:
Brazil: 100.0%
Portugal: 99.6%
Ivory Coast: 0.4%
North Korea: 0.0%
Spain: 71.9%
Chile: 70.6%
Switzerland: 57.0%
Honduras: 0.5%
Slovakia shocked reining champions Italy out of the World Cup (3-2). The Italians did not seem to get in the game until about minute 70 but once in seemed to be able to score with ease. The Italian second goal by Quagliarella was masterful. Pepe missed a last second equalizer that probably kept him all up night.
New Zealand left the World Cup undefeated. Not bad for a team that features amateurs. In Group E Japan is the companion of Netherlands to the next round.
Today's games:
What a game. Portugal will go for victory to avoid Spain (I hope) in next round. The Brazilians will like to show their mother country a thing or two. Should be very open play. Ivory Coast will need to score about 10 goals against North Korea for Portugal to not pass in case of their defeat.
If I was the Ivory Coast manager I would have made his players see the Spain - Malta match of 1983
I mean, you might as well go for it, what is it to lose. If Brazil beats Portugal you will feel stupid if you did not try.
Ayy, my heart trembles. Spain will be playing with a very offensive line-up, only victory can do. I hope ghosts of World Cup pasts wait for another day.
Sweet revenge. The conservative Swiss having to score goals against a wall of 10 defenders. Hah! Take some of your own medicine.
Simulator estimated probabilities of reaching second round:
Brazil: 100.0%
Portugal: 99.6%
Ivory Coast: 0.4%
North Korea: 0.0%
Spain: 71.9%
Chile: 70.6%
Switzerland: 57.0%
Honduras: 0.5%
Welcome USA to the Beautiful Game
From Javier....
It looks like the United States if finally "getting it"...... why the rest of the world loves football. In spite of some skeptics (see below), watching the reaction of home front USA fans on YouTube there is no doubt the yanks have arrived to stay. Enjoy this, because football is cruel and disappointments are more numerous than satisfactions (I should know, I am Spanish).
America's Love Affair Grows
Soccer coverage in USA
Soccer will never be dominant sport
Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Las Vegas
Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Nebraska
Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Texas
It looks like the United States if finally "getting it"...... why the rest of the world loves football. In spite of some skeptics (see below), watching the reaction of home front USA fans on YouTube there is no doubt the yanks have arrived to stay. Enjoy this, because football is cruel and disappointments are more numerous than satisfactions (I should know, I am Spanish).
America's Love Affair Grows
Soccer coverage in USA
Soccer will never be dominant sport
Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Las Vegas
Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Nebraska
Youtube - Reaction to Donovan Goal Texas
Thursday, June 24, 2010
June 24 Games
From Javier...
England finally made it to the second round where they will play a classic match-up against Germany. Amazing to see the English so satisfied after only beating Slovenia 1-0 and being second in their group. England really needs to get its act together versus Germany.
Team USA showed that with spirit you can get results with a minute 91 goal from a tearful Donovan. Must be worth $5 million in sponsorships for the chap, no wonder he was crying.
In Group D Germany and Ghana made it to the second round, with Australia at a given moment only two goals away from qualifying. The Serbians almost tied in the end and blamed the referee for missing out on what they claim was a handball in the Australian box.
Today's game estimates by the Simulator are below.
Italy are strongly favoured over Slovakia.
Paraguay should take care of New Zealand. But don't underestimate the kiwi's spirit.
In Group E all Denmark needs versus Japan is a tie, so the Japanese need to go for it and will open the game to counterattacks.
Cameroon has no chance of qualifying, they will play for honour. Hopefully they will avoid unnecessary rough play on the Dutch.
Probabilities of passing to second round:
Italy 74.5%
Slovakia 18.2%
Paraguay 93.2%
New Zealand 14.0%
Netherlands 100.0%
Japan 21.6%
Cameroon 0.0%
Denmark 78.4%
England finally made it to the second round where they will play a classic match-up against Germany. Amazing to see the English so satisfied after only beating Slovenia 1-0 and being second in their group. England really needs to get its act together versus Germany.
Team USA showed that with spirit you can get results with a minute 91 goal from a tearful Donovan. Must be worth $5 million in sponsorships for the chap, no wonder he was crying.
In Group D Germany and Ghana made it to the second round, with Australia at a given moment only two goals away from qualifying. The Serbians almost tied in the end and blamed the referee for missing out on what they claim was a handball in the Australian box.
Today's game estimates by the Simulator are below.
Italy are strongly favoured over Slovakia.
Paraguay should take care of New Zealand. But don't underestimate the kiwi's spirit.
In Group E all Denmark needs versus Japan is a tie, so the Japanese need to go for it and will open the game to counterattacks.
Cameroon has no chance of qualifying, they will play for honour. Hopefully they will avoid unnecessary rough play on the Dutch.
Probabilities of passing to second round:
Italy 74.5%
Slovakia 18.2%
Paraguay 93.2%
New Zealand 14.0%
Netherlands 100.0%
Japan 21.6%
Cameroon 0.0%
Denmark 78.4%
Photos from South Africa
From Sukhdev in South Africa....
Drop your guns off at the "Gun Drop Off" point........
Slovenia vs England in situ.......
Drop your guns off at the "Gun Drop Off" point........
Slovenia vs England in situ.......
World Cup Diary June 24
From Sukhdev in South Africa......
I woke up yesterday morning to see that there was a guard posted at the front door with a big stick. Of course he was sound asleep and snoring loudly. Maybe a new type of deterrent tactic I'm obviously oblivious to.
At Cape Town airport, I picked up my world cup tickets. I was walking around with a massive smile on my face. There were so many fans in the airport, it really felt like I was finally in the mix. When I got to Port Elizabeth there was big taxi line. With this in mind, you and the taxi driver both know you are going to get ripped off on the fare. Why, therefore does the taxi driver try to justify the price. Just tell me the pain!
Anyway, being at the England game was amazing. Great atmosphere with the singing drowning out the vuvuzelas. It felt like a home game with only a couple of pockets of Slovenia fans. England had a good game, and the performance was much better. Rooney still seems a little out of sorts, and it was good to see him brought off in the second half. There were a few moments when we had our hearts in our mouths as Slovenia moved forward, not least when Terry had to block a shot in the second half at last second. Overall, we had a number of chances and should have got the second.
The only deflater came when news spread of USA's late goal and that we had finished second. It was doubly bad for me, as my tickets were based on England winning the group. But nothing was going to dampen the English spirits as a chorus of "we're not going home" and "bring on the Germans" rang round the stadium (and the bars later).
That night, the English partied hard on the Boardwalk. As the Germany vs Ghana game came on, there were a few Germans in the bars, but overwhelmingly outnumbered by the English. The Germans had to endure a round of "5-1, even Heskey scored", but we knew they were going to be our next opponents. Bring on the Germans!
I woke up yesterday morning to see that there was a guard posted at the front door with a big stick. Of course he was sound asleep and snoring loudly. Maybe a new type of deterrent tactic I'm obviously oblivious to.
At Cape Town airport, I picked up my world cup tickets. I was walking around with a massive smile on my face. There were so many fans in the airport, it really felt like I was finally in the mix. When I got to Port Elizabeth there was big taxi line. With this in mind, you and the taxi driver both know you are going to get ripped off on the fare. Why, therefore does the taxi driver try to justify the price. Just tell me the pain!
Anyway, being at the England game was amazing. Great atmosphere with the singing drowning out the vuvuzelas. It felt like a home game with only a couple of pockets of Slovenia fans. England had a good game, and the performance was much better. Rooney still seems a little out of sorts, and it was good to see him brought off in the second half. There were a few moments when we had our hearts in our mouths as Slovenia moved forward, not least when Terry had to block a shot in the second half at last second. Overall, we had a number of chances and should have got the second.
The only deflater came when news spread of USA's late goal and that we had finished second. It was doubly bad for me, as my tickets were based on England winning the group. But nothing was going to dampen the English spirits as a chorus of "we're not going home" and "bring on the Germans" rang round the stadium (and the bars later).
That night, the English partied hard on the Boardwalk. As the Germany vs Ghana game came on, there were a few Germans in the bars, but overwhelmingly outnumbered by the English. The Germans had to endure a round of "5-1, even Heskey scored", but we knew they were going to be our next opponents. Bring on the Germans!
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
June 23 Games
From Javier...
The Simulator strongly favours USA over Algeria, and I agree as long as team USA plays with the same spirit and determination of previous games.
Game of the day. A major upset possible? Of course it is. That is why we will see this match, for the potential drama. But I doubt Germany will fail.
Model favours Serbia, but I think the Aussies found themselves against Ghana. More equal than what the Simulator suggests.
France consummated the perfect World Cup disaster in their exit yesterday. Uruguay's victory over Mexico 1-0 gave the French a window of opportunity that they were incapable of even trying to grab. As per yesterday's blog entry, recriminations in the French camp will be terrible. Even Monsieur Sarkozy is getting on the act. I find it hard to fathom that players/managers/executives don't put their nation's interests first. We all know that football is not just a sport. It impacts a nation's view of itself and players are role models for the young and not-so-young. France needs some serious introspection. Also needs a course on what professionalism really entails (not group corporatism). A word comes to mind.... "decadence".
The red card was undeserved for Gourcuff, the play was not intentional. What is frustrating about this World Cup (like other World Cups) is not that referees try to protect fairplay, but the lack of consistency in rulings.
In Group B Nigeria was very close to qualifying but after a nerve-wracking end was out. Argentina looks very strong going into the second round, but will not find Mexico easy. Greece culminated an annus horribilis - and the year is only half done.
In today's games, Sukhdev will be watching in the stadium live England - Slovenia. I hope for the sake of the blog that England wins (Sukhi will maintain his motivation).
Amazingly, the English have managed to talk themselves that this game is an uphill battle. On any normal day the English should crush the Slovenians, but this is not a normal World Cup.
The Simulator strongly favours USA over Algeria, and I agree as long as team USA plays with the same spirit and determination of previous games.
Game of the day. A major upset possible? Of course it is. That is why we will see this match, for the potential drama. But I doubt Germany will fail.
Model favours Serbia, but I think the Aussies found themselves against Ghana. More equal than what the Simulator suggests.
In terms of simulation of Group results, England's nightmare scenario is depicted below.
In Group D, Germany's nightmare scenario is shown below.
And this scenario shows what kind of results would result in Australia passing. 
Probabilities of making it to second round:
England: 62.1%
Algeria: 13.6%
Slovenia: 56.3%
USA: 68.0%
Germany: 72.0%
Ghana: 56.0%
Serbia: 66.0%
Australia: 6.0%
World Cup Diary June 22
From Sukhdev in South Africa....
So I've just arrived in Cape Town. While I was on the plane, the pilot gave us updates on the progress of the Group A games. Though most of the flight was not full of South Africans, the demise of the French team at the hands of the South Africans was greeted with huge cheers. The other game hardly registered. As a result Cape Town is definitely a party town tonight.
At the airport I was met by a Cameroonian taxi driver. He had hardly seen any games, but was quite happy for the work the world cup was bringing. As he put it, he would rather work now, as there will be nothing to do after the football is over. After a lively debate about his views on how women should be for producing offspring only and how I couldn't be of pure Indian heritage, we arrived at the hostel.
As normal, the hostel is full of a number of nationalities. I quickly made friends with a group of Norwegians with an impressive knowledge of the game. Inevitably they all supported one of the big English teams.
We watched both games intermittently. The South Korea vs Nigeria game produced some drama, and there was certainly a good level of support for the Nigerians from the crowd.
Anyway, after the long journey, I am going to turn in. Tomorrow is my first game - England vs Slovenia. Can't wait.
So I've just arrived in Cape Town. While I was on the plane, the pilot gave us updates on the progress of the Group A games. Though most of the flight was not full of South Africans, the demise of the French team at the hands of the South Africans was greeted with huge cheers. The other game hardly registered. As a result Cape Town is definitely a party town tonight.
At the airport I was met by a Cameroonian taxi driver. He had hardly seen any games, but was quite happy for the work the world cup was bringing. As he put it, he would rather work now, as there will be nothing to do after the football is over. After a lively debate about his views on how women should be for producing offspring only and how I couldn't be of pure Indian heritage, we arrived at the hostel.
As normal, the hostel is full of a number of nationalities. I quickly made friends with a group of Norwegians with an impressive knowledge of the game. Inevitably they all supported one of the big English teams.
We watched both games intermittently. The South Korea vs Nigeria game produced some drama, and there was certainly a good level of support for the Nigerians from the crowd.
Anyway, after the long journey, I am going to turn in. Tomorrow is my first game - England vs Slovenia. Can't wait.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Updated Probability Estimates (June 22)
From Javier...
Its worth updating the Simulator's updated probabilities as we enter the final stage of round 1 of the World Cup. The table reflects the fact that some teams are already qualified for the play-offs, evidenced by their 100% chance of reaching the 2nd round.
Brazil is favoured to win. The most devastated team from the ex-ante estimates is France. It would have to take a miracle for Argentina not to qualify today.
Remember to click on "Keep User Input Scores in the Model" in the Dialog Box within the Simulator to simulate the rest of the tournament while keeping scores to date intact.
The estimates below are generated 50% model weighting (ex-ante estimates) and 50% user inputs (our updated subjective views).
Its worth updating the Simulator's updated probabilities as we enter the final stage of round 1 of the World Cup. The table reflects the fact that some teams are already qualified for the play-offs, evidenced by their 100% chance of reaching the 2nd round.
Brazil is favoured to win. The most devastated team from the ex-ante estimates is France. It would have to take a miracle for Argentina not to qualify today.
Remember to click on "Keep User Input Scores in the Model" in the Dialog Box within the Simulator to simulate the rest of the tournament while keeping scores to date intact.
The estimates below are generated 50% model weighting (ex-ante estimates) and 50% user inputs (our updated subjective views).
June 22 Games
From Javier...
Sukhdev is on his way to South Africa where tomorrow he will be seeing the England-Slovenia match.
The World Cup returned to normality somewhat yesterday as the favourite teams won and there were no big upsets. Spain defeated Honduras 2-0 but has a tricky match left against Chile on Friday. The Spaniards have an incredible ability to miss chances, but that does not win world cups. Fernando Torres is in poor form and Spain needs his killer instinct intact. Chile beat the horribly boring Swiss 1-0. If the Gods of football are just (they are not) Switzerland will be sent home packing on Friday. Portugal devastated North Korea 7-0. That is as much goals as scored in the famous quarterfinal between both countries in World Cup 1966 (4-3 for Portugal) but on this occasion the goal distribution was lopsided.
The last set of games in each group start today. In Group A, a very interesting Mexico-Uruguay. Will the Mexicans conform with the tie and play Argentina in the next round? I doubt it. An open Mexico-Uruguay games still gives France, or even South Africa, an opportunity. The French should go for it, but are they in the psychological state to do so?; instead of focusing on the opportunity, all they are focused on is on infighting (a reflection of the overall country?). And South Africa will go for the game for their fans. All I can say if that if Uruguay defeats Mexico and France ties or has a short victory over South Africa, the French will rue the lost chance (..... and more infighting and finger pointing). The Simulator with the latest distributions still gives France an 8.6% chance of progressing to second round.
In Group B, the interesting match is Nigeria - South Korea. With the Argentinians going for victory over Greece (Messi will play...... that is really professional and brave by Maradona) the Nigerians can still qualify with a victory over the Koreans. The Nigerians should go for it.
Can the French deliver? In spite of my delight in the fiasco of the northern neighbour of my country (Spain), I have a hunch French pride will make an act of presence today. They have to try because they still have a fighting chance (wow how the media will change if they qualify). On the other hand the bafana bafana are under no pressure and will want to show at least one scalp.
Mexico and Uruguay. Is the temptation to tie to difficult to resist? I think the teams will both go for it. The Uruguayans will look very stupid if they lay back only to be stunned 5 minutes from the final and with the French laying it into South Africa.
The game of the day for me. I have to admit I have it against South Korea since their scandalous referee-assisted victory over Spain in quarterfinals 2002. The Nigerians still can survive and must go for broke.
Argentina is under no pressure. With fluid football and a hungry Messi, together with a Greece that needs to go for it may turn this into a bloodbath.
Sukhdev is on his way to South Africa where tomorrow he will be seeing the England-Slovenia match.
The World Cup returned to normality somewhat yesterday as the favourite teams won and there were no big upsets. Spain defeated Honduras 2-0 but has a tricky match left against Chile on Friday. The Spaniards have an incredible ability to miss chances, but that does not win world cups. Fernando Torres is in poor form and Spain needs his killer instinct intact. Chile beat the horribly boring Swiss 1-0. If the Gods of football are just (they are not) Switzerland will be sent home packing on Friday. Portugal devastated North Korea 7-0. That is as much goals as scored in the famous quarterfinal between both countries in World Cup 1966 (4-3 for Portugal) but on this occasion the goal distribution was lopsided.
The last set of games in each group start today. In Group A, a very interesting Mexico-Uruguay. Will the Mexicans conform with the tie and play Argentina in the next round? I doubt it. An open Mexico-Uruguay games still gives France, or even South Africa, an opportunity. The French should go for it, but are they in the psychological state to do so?; instead of focusing on the opportunity, all they are focused on is on infighting (a reflection of the overall country?). And South Africa will go for the game for their fans. All I can say if that if Uruguay defeats Mexico and France ties or has a short victory over South Africa, the French will rue the lost chance (..... and more infighting and finger pointing). The Simulator with the latest distributions still gives France an 8.6% chance of progressing to second round.
In Group B, the interesting match is Nigeria - South Korea. With the Argentinians going for victory over Greece (Messi will play...... that is really professional and brave by Maradona) the Nigerians can still qualify with a victory over the Koreans. The Nigerians should go for it.
Can the French deliver? In spite of my delight in the fiasco of the northern neighbour of my country (Spain), I have a hunch French pride will make an act of presence today. They have to try because they still have a fighting chance (wow how the media will change if they qualify). On the other hand the bafana bafana are under no pressure and will want to show at least one scalp.
Mexico and Uruguay. Is the temptation to tie to difficult to resist? I think the teams will both go for it. The Uruguayans will look very stupid if they lay back only to be stunned 5 minutes from the final and with the French laying it into South Africa.
The game of the day for me. I have to admit I have it against South Korea since their scandalous referee-assisted victory over Spain in quarterfinals 2002. The Nigerians still can survive and must go for broke.
Argentina is under no pressure. With fluid football and a hungry Messi, together with a Greece that needs to go for it may turn this into a bloodbath.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Unlucky Aussies
From Sukhdev:
I'm starting to feel a little sorry for the Australians. They had a plucky game against Ghana, and I thought Ghana would go onto win the game once Kewell was sent off. Kewell deserved to be sent off, but so did Addy after a horific tackle. Australia were probably wondering how Cahill could be sent off against the Germans while Addy only got a yellow card. Still, it was one of the better games to watch. With 11 on 11 or 10 vs 10, I think the Australians would probably have won.
In contrast, the Netherlands vs Japan game was a little stale until the Dutch scored meaning the Japanese had to come out and play. The Denmark game was also interesting, and it could have gone either way.
So to today's games. First up is Slovakia vs Paraguay. I just hope both teams really go for it. Slovakia probably need this one more, but our model shows that Paraguay is a more likely winner.
The second game should see Italy win, but in this cup who knows. Most of the top seeds are not doing that well.
The final game should be very interesting. Cote d'Ivoire need the win more, but to beat Brazil will be a very difficult task. However, Cote d'Ivoire does have a lot of quality so I would not completely rule them out.
I'm starting to feel a little sorry for the Australians. They had a plucky game against Ghana, and I thought Ghana would go onto win the game once Kewell was sent off. Kewell deserved to be sent off, but so did Addy after a horific tackle. Australia were probably wondering how Cahill could be sent off against the Germans while Addy only got a yellow card. Still, it was one of the better games to watch. With 11 on 11 or 10 vs 10, I think the Australians would probably have won.
In contrast, the Netherlands vs Japan game was a little stale until the Dutch scored meaning the Japanese had to come out and play. The Denmark game was also interesting, and it could have gone either way.
So to today's games. First up is Slovakia vs Paraguay. I just hope both teams really go for it. Slovakia probably need this one more, but our model shows that Paraguay is a more likely winner.
The second game should see Italy win, but in this cup who knows. Most of the top seeds are not doing that well.
The final game should be very interesting. Cote d'Ivoire need the win more, but to beat Brazil will be a very difficult task. However, Cote d'Ivoire does have a lot of quality so I would not completely rule them out.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
June 19 Games
From Javier...
The 2010 World Cup has been cracked wide open over the past three days. Sukhdev is fuming after yesterday's poor showing by England (Algeria 0, England 0). Difficult to understand the lack of conviction of the English players, reminds me of Spain. But coach Capello has to take a lot of the blame, the English team seems to be playing with too many constraints and rigidities. Placing Gerrard on the left was a tactical faux pas. Rooney looks particularly nervous and with either physical or confidence problems. "Nice to see your own fans booing"........ is what he said to the camera at the end of the game. Not smart to antagonise the fan base, but maybe this is the catalyzer he needs (he will like to make obscene gestures to the fans when he scores his next goal).
Serbia beat Germany 1-0 and the Germans missed a penalty. The Germans were furious about the referee's dismissal of Klose in the first half. But if you tackle someone from behind in mid-field, don't touch the ball, trip the opponent and interrupt the flow of play and the opportunity of the other team's counterattack, and if you have been warned by the referee not to do it again just a few minutes earlier, what is to complain?
The USA and Slovenia tied 2-2 in a lively match. Good to see the team USA with courage being rewarded with a draw after going 2-0 down. Note for the rest: instead of caving in to pressure or lamenting back luck, just keep focusing on getting the ball, getting into goalscoring situations and shooting on target when the opportunity arises. I loved the spirit of team USA.
Today's games and the Simulator estimates are the following.
Netherlands are strongly favoured by the model over Japan, but the reality on the ground against the well organised Japanese will be tougher than on paper.
The Australians are tilted to win over Ghana. But Ghana are favourites to win with media and fans after beating Serbia. I believe the Australians will come out with much stronger mindset than the game against Germany and will be a competitive game.
Cameroon takes on Denmark in the match of underachievers, with Cameroon estimated to have slightly higher chances of taking this one.Both teams need to win to keep their qualifying chances so hopefully they will come out with a winning mentality.
The 2010 World Cup has been cracked wide open over the past three days. Sukhdev is fuming after yesterday's poor showing by England (Algeria 0, England 0). Difficult to understand the lack of conviction of the English players, reminds me of Spain. But coach Capello has to take a lot of the blame, the English team seems to be playing with too many constraints and rigidities. Placing Gerrard on the left was a tactical faux pas. Rooney looks particularly nervous and with either physical or confidence problems. "Nice to see your own fans booing"........ is what he said to the camera at the end of the game. Not smart to antagonise the fan base, but maybe this is the catalyzer he needs (he will like to make obscene gestures to the fans when he scores his next goal).
Serbia beat Germany 1-0 and the Germans missed a penalty. The Germans were furious about the referee's dismissal of Klose in the first half. But if you tackle someone from behind in mid-field, don't touch the ball, trip the opponent and interrupt the flow of play and the opportunity of the other team's counterattack, and if you have been warned by the referee not to do it again just a few minutes earlier, what is to complain?
The USA and Slovenia tied 2-2 in a lively match. Good to see the team USA with courage being rewarded with a draw after going 2-0 down. Note for the rest: instead of caving in to pressure or lamenting back luck, just keep focusing on getting the ball, getting into goalscoring situations and shooting on target when the opportunity arises. I loved the spirit of team USA.
Today's games and the Simulator estimates are the following.
Netherlands are strongly favoured by the model over Japan, but the reality on the ground against the well organised Japanese will be tougher than on paper.
The Australians are tilted to win over Ghana. But Ghana are favourites to win with media and fans after beating Serbia. I believe the Australians will come out with much stronger mindset than the game against Germany and will be a competitive game.
Cameroon takes on Denmark in the match of underachievers, with Cameroon estimated to have slightly higher chances of taking this one.Both teams need to win to keep their qualifying chances so hopefully they will come out with a winning mentality.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
