Spain vs Netherlands in the final of the World Cup on Sunday. For the first time ever Spain makes it to the final, for Netherlands it will be the third final after 1974 and 1978.
I am in Spain right now and the environment is electrified. As a country we have set aside our huge problems for the time being, at least until next week. We are in awe of the best Spanish team we have ever seen, a team that is writing football history.
I saw the Germany - Spain game surrounded by dear friends and family. For us middle-aged Spaniards it was almost too difficult to believe that not only we defeated Germany, but that we completely outclassed and outplayed the Germans. It looks like the demons that I mentioned in my Reminiscences of a Middle Aged Spaniard have been discarded. And the tough Swiss medicine that we took in Spain's first game in the World Cup now looks like a blessing in disguise.
The biggest issue for Spain is overconfidence and relaxation ahead of the game against The Netherlands. But it was reassuring to see that the players have reacted with humility to their victory over Germany and with the message that the job is not yet done. The Spanish fans may think this is over, but the players and coach are the ones that matter.
The Simulator estimates for Sunday's final are below. The reader will notice that in this blog or the Simulator we do not mention the game of semifinal losers on Saturday. That is because Sukhdev and I believe that match is a non-event. I for one will not even watch that game, which is the only one played in the tournament that has no bearing on the final.
It is worth mentioning that in the original Simulator run the estimated probabilities indicated Spain was second most likely to win and Netherlands was fourth. Not bad that the top two finalists were top four in the Simulator runs.
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