The World Cup has this thing about history. Very few teams are allowed into the hallowed halls of finalists. Therefore if history commands, Germany will beat Spain today and the final will be Germany - Netherlands, a repeat of the historic 1974 final. Hopefully Spain will trounce history.
In yesterday's game Netherlands defeated Uruguay 3-2. The game for me lost its lustre with the clear offside in the second Dutch goal. The game at that moment was at a very interesting impasse in the second half - we need FIFA to allow TV replays by the next World Cup. These referee mistakes, and there have been a lot of them in the tournament, are a tarnish to the beautiful game.
Here are the Simulator estimates for today's game. A little wishful thinking you might say. But I refuse to change the ex-ante estimates with Germany's performance in the last two games. Germany was not really tested in either match and today they are actually playing a team with a mid-field. Subjectively the probabilities for me are 50/50.
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