Second day of football withdrawal syndrome and already the shakes are gone. Maybe football is not that addictive.
Now that there are only 8 teams left we thought it would be interesting to update the Simulator's estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Results are below:
Brazil is favoured to win the World Cup. Paradoxically because of Brazil's tough match on Friday Brazil's probabilities of reaching the semifinals are lower than Uruguay or Spain. But if Brazil beats Netherlands its probabilities of winning the tournament will increase dramatically. This illustrates the path dependence we mentioned in a previous entry.
Likewise Germany and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup are hurt by their suicidal match up on Saturday. The winner will emerge with enhanced probabilities of winning the tournament.
What a great match. Don't miss it, these Brazil - Netherlands games are a classic of the World Cup.
Uruguay should be able to overcome the young Ghanians. However Ghana showed a lot of spirit in the last game and will not be a pushover.
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As a Dutchman I'm really excited about the match this afternoon!
ReplyDeleteAll the previous opponents of the Dutch team weren't that great, but now I'm really excited, it's all or nothing...
Glenn, congratulations on Netherlands. You guys have a 27.0% chance of winning the World Cup now according to our Simulator.
ReplyDeleteI hope the final is Netherlands - Spain!
Check today's blog entry today, the Uruguay - Ghana game gave me goosebumps!