Final World Cup Goal Averages

From Javier...




Final goal average for WC 2010 is in the table together with historical goal averages of every World Cup since 1966. For both 1st round and 2nd round the top scoring game has been eliminated from each tournament to mitigate somewhat the effect of outliers.

The good news is that in the second round of WC 2010 the goal effectiveness was much improved compared to the first round.

The bad news is that average goals per game for the overall 2010 tournament was the second lowest of the historical record since 1966, only the poor WC 1990 showed less goal effectiveness.

The trend is worrying. What can FIFA do? I still think there are improvements that can be done in refereeing. The final game showed that there is still too much tolerance for skulduggery and the Dutch almost got away with their deliberate strategy. Also it is maddening to see the variance in criteria in referee decisions between different games and even in the same game. Again in the final Xavi was showed a yellow card for kicking a ball a few yards forward after a foul was given (after the 1-0), but a few minutes earlier Robben had escaped a second yellow card for a more deliberate and provocative identical play. I think a World Cup where a few red cards are handed out in the first games would set a tone of non-acceptance of violent play. And with respect to diving, a few red cards and FIFA acting on TV replays should help to limit play acting.

The jabulani ball needs to be changed. A more controllable and predictable ball will be welcome. Not nice to see the unexpected twists and turns of the ball in the air that forced so many goalkeeper errors. Also mid and long range passing was poor in the tournament (could this have benefited Spain's shorter passing game?). Remember the famous Roberto Carlos goal in a friendly against France. In this case the effect on the ball was because of the player's skill, not because of the properties of the ball.

Finally, why not change the actual dimensions of the goal? Just slightly. I know goalkeepers hate this, but this would result in an immediate increase in goals, shots on goal, will favour offensive teams and will penalise defensive tactics.