From Javier....
Every historical World Cup moment needs a classic commentary behind it. For England 1966 it is "..they think it is all over.....it is now". For Maradona's goal of 1986 against England (the legal goal) its Hugo Morales classic commentary with references to "....barrilete cosmico"....
For Iniesta's World Cup final goal, hands down the commentary that will be associated is Spanish National Radio:
Spanish National Radio Iniesta Goal
Script:
Goooooooooool!
Goooooooooool de Iniesta!
Goooooooooooool de España!
Gol de España! Gol de Iniesta! x7
Este gol puede valer un Mundial x 2 (this goal can be worth a World Cup)
Ha marcado Iniesta! (Iniesta scored)
Don Andres! Don Andres! Don Andres!
Ha marcado Iniesta! x4
Quedan dos y medio para llegar al final de la prorroga (two and a half left to end extra-time)
Ha marcado Iniesta! x2
España va a ser campeona del Mundo (Spain is going to be World Champion)
Ha marcado Iniesta!
Te quiero mucho Andres! Te quiero mucho! x3 (I love you Andres)
Viva Andres! Viva España!
Ha marcado Iniesta! Ha marcado España!
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
Final World Cup Goal Averages
From Javier...
Final goal average for WC 2010 is in the table together with historical goal averages of every World Cup since 1966. For both 1st round and 2nd round the top scoring game has been eliminated from each tournament to mitigate somewhat the effect of outliers.
The good news is that in the second round of WC 2010 the goal effectiveness was much improved compared to the first round.
The bad news is that average goals per game for the overall 2010 tournament was the second lowest of the historical record since 1966, only the poor WC 1990 showed less goal effectiveness.
The trend is worrying. What can FIFA do? I still think there are improvements that can be done in refereeing. The final game showed that there is still too much tolerance for skulduggery and the Dutch almost got away with their deliberate strategy. Also it is maddening to see the variance in criteria in referee decisions between different games and even in the same game. Again in the final Xavi was showed a yellow card for kicking a ball a few yards forward after a foul was given (after the 1-0), but a few minutes earlier Robben had escaped a second yellow card for a more deliberate and provocative identical play. I think a World Cup where a few red cards are handed out in the first games would set a tone of non-acceptance of violent play. And with respect to diving, a few red cards and FIFA acting on TV replays should help to limit play acting.
The jabulani ball needs to be changed. A more controllable and predictable ball will be welcome. Not nice to see the unexpected twists and turns of the ball in the air that forced so many goalkeeper errors. Also mid and long range passing was poor in the tournament (could this have benefited Spain's shorter passing game?). Remember the famous Roberto Carlos goal in a friendly against France. In this case the effect on the ball was because of the player's skill, not because of the properties of the ball.
Finally, why not change the actual dimensions of the goal? Just slightly. I know goalkeepers hate this, but this would result in an immediate increase in goals, shots on goal, will favour offensive teams and will penalise defensive tactics.
Final goal average for WC 2010 is in the table together with historical goal averages of every World Cup since 1966. For both 1st round and 2nd round the top scoring game has been eliminated from each tournament to mitigate somewhat the effect of outliers.
The good news is that in the second round of WC 2010 the goal effectiveness was much improved compared to the first round.
The bad news is that average goals per game for the overall 2010 tournament was the second lowest of the historical record since 1966, only the poor WC 1990 showed less goal effectiveness.
The trend is worrying. What can FIFA do? I still think there are improvements that can be done in refereeing. The final game showed that there is still too much tolerance for skulduggery and the Dutch almost got away with their deliberate strategy. Also it is maddening to see the variance in criteria in referee decisions between different games and even in the same game. Again in the final Xavi was showed a yellow card for kicking a ball a few yards forward after a foul was given (after the 1-0), but a few minutes earlier Robben had escaped a second yellow card for a more deliberate and provocative identical play. I think a World Cup where a few red cards are handed out in the first games would set a tone of non-acceptance of violent play. And with respect to diving, a few red cards and FIFA acting on TV replays should help to limit play acting.
The jabulani ball needs to be changed. A more controllable and predictable ball will be welcome. Not nice to see the unexpected twists and turns of the ball in the air that forced so many goalkeeper errors. Also mid and long range passing was poor in the tournament (could this have benefited Spain's shorter passing game?). Remember the famous Roberto Carlos goal in a friendly against France. In this case the effect on the ball was because of the player's skill, not because of the properties of the ball.
Finally, why not change the actual dimensions of the goal? Just slightly. I know goalkeepers hate this, but this would result in an immediate increase in goals, shots on goal, will favour offensive teams and will penalise defensive tactics.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Spain World Cup Champion
From Javier...
What can I say. I thought it would be very difficult that Spain would ever be World Cup champion. And here the team has made us champions before I am even 40. And not only has Spain won, but it has also created a unique football style that fans can recognise as truly Spanish.
We started this blog as a showcase for Monte Carlo Simulation. But we continuously have highlighted the importance of psychology and mental strength in football, away from tactics or skills. I was again very impressed yesterday with the Spanish team. The Dutch took the lessons of Spain's games against Switzerland, Chile and Paraguay and took them to a different level: interrupt play continuously, apply strong tackles to destabilise, intimidate and provoke the Spaniards, force Spain to commit mistakes. The Spanish players maintained their composure remarkably well in face of what the British press today defines as "thug football". The karate kick on Xabi Alonso is front page on the Times supplement today.
I understand the Dutch tactics and the rationale for them. But the Dutch also have to understand that Dutch football's image has taken a formidable beating, the romantic 74 team has been superseded by the ice hockey players of '10. Johann Cruyf must be very mad today. Probably the Dutch mistake was not to start pressure further up field (like Chile did so effectively against Spain) and to incur in unnecessary rough play that tested the referee's patience. And of course The Netherlands missed some very good chances.
I saw the game surrounded by a large contingent of political family, my wife, my four young daughters and my mother. I missed my dear father who passed away last year and would have loved so much to see Spain crowned champion. When Iniesta scored the goal the release of tension and sense of relief was overwhelming. Four grown-up men spent a minute hugging and jumping in front of the TV.
So never again will we have to endure that "Spain are perennial underachievers". For the future I hope team Spain does not become a parody of itself and tries to take the "tiki-taka" and passing football too far. We cannot forget that the semifinal against Germany was won with a classic English-style header by a defense on a corner kick. We cannot forget the wake-up call given to us by Switzerland in the first game and confuse possession with winning. At the same time, who would have guessed that even with our star striker (who adds Northern European style definition to the passing game) in very poor form that Spain would still make it.
Team Spain is an example of humility, hard work, teamwork and cool headedness. Great example for Spain's young and not-so-young. Hopefully the country's politicians will learn from the national side composed of a variety of regions and will start to exhibit the same attributes.
What can I say. I thought it would be very difficult that Spain would ever be World Cup champion. And here the team has made us champions before I am even 40. And not only has Spain won, but it has also created a unique football style that fans can recognise as truly Spanish.
We started this blog as a showcase for Monte Carlo Simulation. But we continuously have highlighted the importance of psychology and mental strength in football, away from tactics or skills. I was again very impressed yesterday with the Spanish team. The Dutch took the lessons of Spain's games against Switzerland, Chile and Paraguay and took them to a different level: interrupt play continuously, apply strong tackles to destabilise, intimidate and provoke the Spaniards, force Spain to commit mistakes. The Spanish players maintained their composure remarkably well in face of what the British press today defines as "thug football". The karate kick on Xabi Alonso is front page on the Times supplement today.
I understand the Dutch tactics and the rationale for them. But the Dutch also have to understand that Dutch football's image has taken a formidable beating, the romantic 74 team has been superseded by the ice hockey players of '10. Johann Cruyf must be very mad today. Probably the Dutch mistake was not to start pressure further up field (like Chile did so effectively against Spain) and to incur in unnecessary rough play that tested the referee's patience. And of course The Netherlands missed some very good chances.
I saw the game surrounded by a large contingent of political family, my wife, my four young daughters and my mother. I missed my dear father who passed away last year and would have loved so much to see Spain crowned champion. When Iniesta scored the goal the release of tension and sense of relief was overwhelming. Four grown-up men spent a minute hugging and jumping in front of the TV.
So never again will we have to endure that "Spain are perennial underachievers". For the future I hope team Spain does not become a parody of itself and tries to take the "tiki-taka" and passing football too far. We cannot forget that the semifinal against Germany was won with a classic English-style header by a defense on a corner kick. We cannot forget the wake-up call given to us by Switzerland in the first game and confuse possession with winning. At the same time, who would have guessed that even with our star striker (who adds Northern European style definition to the passing game) in very poor form that Spain would still make it.
Team Spain is an example of humility, hard work, teamwork and cool headedness. Great example for Spain's young and not-so-young. Hopefully the country's politicians will learn from the national side composed of a variety of regions and will start to exhibit the same attributes.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Spain - Netherlands in Final
From Javier....
I am in Spain right now and the environment is electrified. As a country we have set aside our huge problems for the time being, at least until next week. We are in awe of the best Spanish team we have ever seen, a team that is writing football history.
Spain vs Netherlands in the final of the World Cup on Sunday. For the first time ever Spain makes it to the final, for Netherlands it will be the third final after 1974 and 1978.
I am in Spain right now and the environment is electrified. As a country we have set aside our huge problems for the time being, at least until next week. We are in awe of the best Spanish team we have ever seen, a team that is writing football history.
I saw the Germany - Spain game surrounded by dear friends and family. For us middle-aged Spaniards it was almost too difficult to believe that not only we defeated Germany, but that we completely outclassed and outplayed the Germans. It looks like the demons that I mentioned in my Reminiscences of a Middle Aged Spaniard have been discarded. And the tough Swiss medicine that we took in Spain's first game in the World Cup now looks like a blessing in disguise.
The biggest issue for Spain is overconfidence and relaxation ahead of the game against The Netherlands. But it was reassuring to see that the players have reacted with humility to their victory over Germany and with the message that the job is not yet done. The Spanish fans may think this is over, but the players and coach are the ones that matter.
The Simulator estimates for Sunday's final are below. The reader will notice that in this blog or the Simulator we do not mention the game of semifinal losers on Saturday. That is because Sukhdev and I believe that match is a non-event. I for one will not even watch that game, which is the only one played in the tournament that has no bearing on the final.
It is worth mentioning that in the original Simulator run the estimated probabilities indicated Spain was second most likely to win and Netherlands was fourth. Not bad that the top two finalists were top four in the Simulator runs.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
July 07 Game
From Javier....
The World Cup has this thing about history. Very few teams are allowed into the hallowed halls of finalists. Therefore if history commands, Germany will beat Spain today and the final will be Germany - Netherlands, a repeat of the historic 1974 final. Hopefully Spain will trounce history.
In yesterday's game Netherlands defeated Uruguay 3-2. The game for me lost its lustre with the clear offside in the second Dutch goal. The game at that moment was at a very interesting impasse in the second half - we need FIFA to allow TV replays by the next World Cup. These referee mistakes, and there have been a lot of them in the tournament, are a tarnish to the beautiful game.
Here are the Simulator estimates for today's game. A little wishful thinking you might say. But I refuse to change the ex-ante estimates with Germany's performance in the last two games. Germany was not really tested in either match and today they are actually playing a team with a mid-field. Subjectively the probabilities for me are 50/50.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
July 06 Game & Updated Probabilities
From Javier....
We are down to the last four teams for the semifinals. Uruguay, two times World Cup winner in 1930 and 1950 (in the biggest sporting upset in history played in Brazil against Brazil) and semifinalist in 1970 against the Brazil of Pele. Germany, three times World Cup winner (1954, 1974, 1990) and multiple times finalist (1966,1982,1986,2002). Netherlands, World Cup finalist in 1974 and 1978. And Spain....... well Spain was in the top four in 1950.
Today Netherlands takes on Uruguay. The Dutch better not be overconfident, because Uruguay is not a pushover. The Netherlands were lucky with Brazil in that the Brazilians selfdestructed. The best news for Netherlands is that Uruguay's star striker Suarez has to sit out the game after his "Hand of God" against Ghana. The Uruguayans have performed beyond what anyone expected of them, they are heroes in their home country no matter what and will be under less pressure tonight than the Netherlands. But the Netherlands have performed admirably as a solid block. Great game.
Updated estimated probabilities are shown in the adjunct table. Netherlands has higher probabilities to win the World Cup than Germany because it has theoretically an easier path, with the Germans taking on the Simulator favourite Spain tomorrow (more on that next blog entry).
Monday, July 5, 2010
World Cup Diary July 05
From Sukhdev in South Africa...
I'm at the gate waiting to leave Cape Town and have some time before boarding to reflect on the journey I have taken.
I arrived in South Africa without too many preconceptions of what to expect. So I was open to being impressed, and though there have been some hiccups, I have been very impressed.
First and foremost, all the people in South Africa have been very friendly without regard to colour, creed, religion or whether they were from South Africa, or elsewhere. Having travelled both alone and with friends, I have seen that it was easy to make new friends and be catered for as a group. I did not see or hear from other travellers any issues with security and, as that was a major issue for people who would not travel here, it has become very apparent they were plainly wrong.
After the Uruguay vs Ghana game, transport back to Johannesburg from the stadium was efficient. I took a train to Jo'burg and walked from the stadium to my hostel, with two of the guys I was with. A police car stopped us and actually gave us a lift to the hostel saying it was not the best neighbourhood to walk in, so you still need to take some precautions. The arrival at the hostel was greeting by cheers by other travellers for the police car for the taxi ride.
Organisation has been great, though when things did go wrong or someone wanted to do something the organisers did not think of (see below), stewards were not able to help. A lack of training of the hundreds of stewards and police at these points became evident. But on the whole I cannot complain on a virtually easy trip to South Africa.
The knock-on effect of not enough people travelling to South Africa was the lack of supporters from the various countries participating. However, the Africans made up the numbers and at least black market tickets remained within the reach of all fans. Most tickets, especially in the group games, were sold at a fraction of the face value. Also, I saw a different way of supporting a team from the controversial vuvuzela to the african dancing where entire seating areas seem to have choreographed moves that were great to watch, especially if a game was a bit boring.
Even watching the games in the FIFA fan fests were great. I watched the England vs Germany game in one, and though the result made me very sad, the spectacle was good. I also watched the Brazil vs Holland game in a packed out fan fest in New Town in Johannesburg. It was almost like being at the game: lots of cheering, vuvuzelas and passion.
In the end, I had an opportunity to watch seven games. Some of them dragged on such as Switzerland vs Honduras in the cold at Bloemfontain to the classic of Uruguay vs Ghana. I have always wanted to see a penalty shoot out live, and though the Ghana team was unlucky, the atmosphere was electric, as clichéd as that sounds. I have found most games, especially the group games, had better second halves than first halves, which may reflect the pressure many of the teams were under, and fewer classics to be found.
Saying that the knockout stages have not been found too wanting. The Germans seem to have hit high gear, and the Spain vs Germany semi final has all the hallmarks of a great game. Germany beating England 4-1 was a little hard to take, but at least I was at the Argentina vs Germany game to see another fours goals from the German goal machine. Both teams seemed to be a little light in midfield, and that is where Spain excel, so I cannot see a repeat for the Germans. In fact I expect Spain to win. Being at the Argentina game, I could see how much space and time Swinesteiger had in the middle of the field. Though Ozil is getting all the plaudits, Swinesteiger's presence went unchecked by an Argentine midfield that only really contained Mascherano.
The Argentina vs Germany game was my last, and in Cape Town, which with Durban are my two favourite cities. However, I think the stadium in Cape Town is located in the wrong place on the coast. This limits access and many fans probably missed Germany's early goal because of the delays in getting in due to the sheer number of people trying to get in. At least it was good natured.
Apart from the football, Cape Town has a number of other things on offer from the V&A Waterfront and hiking Table Mountain, to taking a car to Cape Point and the numerous wine farms.
Durban was also a great tourist destination, where I went on safari to see elephants, rhino, giraffes, buffalo amongst others, but unfortunately no big cats this time. The beach is good and safe, and the water is warmer than in Cape Town.
I guess the only down points came in Rustenburg, where stewards did not know the names or how to get to the various park and rides. Maps and better training would have been useful here. Also, I arrived to the Uruguay vs Ghana game 30 minutes into the first half because stewards at the game gave me incorrect directions, and transport only moving in one direction. The volunteer stewards have done very well, but have been let down by the organisers who could have trained them better. Even during the most frustrating times, the stewards remained upbeat and tried to help where they could, so I cannot fault their good nature.
Anyway, now it is time to board and I am definitely ready to stop travelling from city to city and get back to my own bed. But South Africa is on my list of places to visit again.
I'm at the gate waiting to leave Cape Town and have some time before boarding to reflect on the journey I have taken.
I arrived in South Africa without too many preconceptions of what to expect. So I was open to being impressed, and though there have been some hiccups, I have been very impressed.
First and foremost, all the people in South Africa have been very friendly without regard to colour, creed, religion or whether they were from South Africa, or elsewhere. Having travelled both alone and with friends, I have seen that it was easy to make new friends and be catered for as a group. I did not see or hear from other travellers any issues with security and, as that was a major issue for people who would not travel here, it has become very apparent they were plainly wrong.
After the Uruguay vs Ghana game, transport back to Johannesburg from the stadium was efficient. I took a train to Jo'burg and walked from the stadium to my hostel, with two of the guys I was with. A police car stopped us and actually gave us a lift to the hostel saying it was not the best neighbourhood to walk in, so you still need to take some precautions. The arrival at the hostel was greeting by cheers by other travellers for the police car for the taxi ride.
Organisation has been great, though when things did go wrong or someone wanted to do something the organisers did not think of (see below), stewards were not able to help. A lack of training of the hundreds of stewards and police at these points became evident. But on the whole I cannot complain on a virtually easy trip to South Africa.
The knock-on effect of not enough people travelling to South Africa was the lack of supporters from the various countries participating. However, the Africans made up the numbers and at least black market tickets remained within the reach of all fans. Most tickets, especially in the group games, were sold at a fraction of the face value. Also, I saw a different way of supporting a team from the controversial vuvuzela to the african dancing where entire seating areas seem to have choreographed moves that were great to watch, especially if a game was a bit boring.
Even watching the games in the FIFA fan fests were great. I watched the England vs Germany game in one, and though the result made me very sad, the spectacle was good. I also watched the Brazil vs Holland game in a packed out fan fest in New Town in Johannesburg. It was almost like being at the game: lots of cheering, vuvuzelas and passion.
In the end, I had an opportunity to watch seven games. Some of them dragged on such as Switzerland vs Honduras in the cold at Bloemfontain to the classic of Uruguay vs Ghana. I have always wanted to see a penalty shoot out live, and though the Ghana team was unlucky, the atmosphere was electric, as clichéd as that sounds. I have found most games, especially the group games, had better second halves than first halves, which may reflect the pressure many of the teams were under, and fewer classics to be found.
Saying that the knockout stages have not been found too wanting. The Germans seem to have hit high gear, and the Spain vs Germany semi final has all the hallmarks of a great game. Germany beating England 4-1 was a little hard to take, but at least I was at the Argentina vs Germany game to see another fours goals from the German goal machine. Both teams seemed to be a little light in midfield, and that is where Spain excel, so I cannot see a repeat for the Germans. In fact I expect Spain to win. Being at the Argentina game, I could see how much space and time Swinesteiger had in the middle of the field. Though Ozil is getting all the plaudits, Swinesteiger's presence went unchecked by an Argentine midfield that only really contained Mascherano.
The Argentina vs Germany game was my last, and in Cape Town, which with Durban are my two favourite cities. However, I think the stadium in Cape Town is located in the wrong place on the coast. This limits access and many fans probably missed Germany's early goal because of the delays in getting in due to the sheer number of people trying to get in. At least it was good natured.
Apart from the football, Cape Town has a number of other things on offer from the V&A Waterfront and hiking Table Mountain, to taking a car to Cape Point and the numerous wine farms.
Durban was also a great tourist destination, where I went on safari to see elephants, rhino, giraffes, buffalo amongst others, but unfortunately no big cats this time. The beach is good and safe, and the water is warmer than in Cape Town.
I guess the only down points came in Rustenburg, where stewards did not know the names or how to get to the various park and rides. Maps and better training would have been useful here. Also, I arrived to the Uruguay vs Ghana game 30 minutes into the first half because stewards at the game gave me incorrect directions, and transport only moving in one direction. The volunteer stewards have done very well, but have been let down by the organisers who could have trained them better. Even during the most frustrating times, the stewards remained upbeat and tried to help where they could, so I cannot fault their good nature.
Anyway, now it is time to board and I am definitely ready to stop travelling from city to city and get back to my own bed. But South Africa is on my list of places to visit again.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
History, Panenka & July 3 Games
From Javier....
Cannot be objective here. Never has Spain had a better chance of beating its no-semifinal curse. The Paraguayans will play to keep this at 0-0. I hope Spain shows better effectiveness today. It looks like Torres is starting. Still do not understand why coaches line up non-fit players. Why don't they keep unfit star players on the bench like W. Germany did in 1986 with Rummenigge, to bring them out in the second half to turn around difficult situations.
Wow. This is why football is the greatest sport in the world. Yesterday we had two games. On paper the most attractive game was the Brazil - Netherlands, which turned out to have a dramatic outcome when Netherlands upset the Brazilians 2-1. This would have been the focus of today's blog entry under normal circumstances.
But the circumstances were not normal. Uruguay - Ghana was the stuff of World Cup magic, one of those dramas that will reverberate throughout history. Time will tell if it will make the World Cup Mythical Game list. A Hollywood scriptwriter could not have come up with a plot with more twists, heros and anti-heroes than in this match.
This was the script: An African nation, with one billion people behind it, plays a small South American nation in the quarterfinals of the first World Cup celebrated on African soil. The African nation scores in the last minute of the first half and is outplaying formidably the other team. In the second half the South American nation scores from a twisting strike from a set piece and the game goes to extra-time.
Then the scriptwriter goes crazy. In the last minute of extra-time the African nation has an incredible chance and one of the other team's players (their star striker to boot) first deflects a ball out from the goal line with his feet, and then in second instance with his hands in a goalkeeper-like save. The referee sees the save, shows a red card to the South American player and signals penalty......... and the penalty kick hits the cross bar. Off to penalty shootout. The African nation misses twice, the South American once, and in the decisive penalty kick a "crazy" South American player tries out a Panenka penalty and puts it in. Note to scripwriter: Please try to keep a plausible storyline.
All of the above happened in yesterday's game and more. Some notes on the drama:
(1) The tragic hero. Suarez, the Uruguayan striker, saved his team in the last minute of play with an historical interception on the goal line (actually is was a pretty good save that would make a goalkeeper proud). He was shown justly a direct red card and will not be able to play the next game. But his ultimate sacrifice allowed Uruguay the chance to win the penalty shootout.
(2) The goalkeeper. The Uruguayan goalkeeper was full of confidence and menacing during the shootout. He stopped two penalties. I think the Uruguayans must have trained on the penalties very hard.
(3) The "crazy" hero. Abreu is nicknamed el "loco" in Spanish, that means "crazy". I hope the reader comprehends the cold blood that is required for a player in such a dramatic moment like the decisive penalty of the quarterfinals of a World Cup to try out a Panenka penalty. What is a "Panenka" penalty? The two following YouTube links will show you the original Panenka penalty by the Czech player of that name in a European Championship final and the effort that Zidane did in the 2006 World Cup final that almost missed.
YouTubeOriginalPanenkaPenalty still the original is the most beautiful one
(4) The tragic anti-hero. Gyan missed an historical chance to enter the history books my missing the last minute penalty. Some players never get over this. I hope he can.
What about today's games? Simulator probabilities are below:
I think this is the most equal estimated probabilities of the Simulator ever for a match-up. Another historical game. Memories of World Cup finals 1986, 1990 and quarterfinal 2006 are rekindled.
I think this is the most equal estimated probabilities of the Simulator ever for a match-up. Another historical game. Memories of World Cup finals 1986, 1990 and quarterfinal 2006 are rekindled.
Cannot be objective here. Never has Spain had a better chance of beating its no-semifinal curse. The Paraguayans will play to keep this at 0-0. I hope Spain shows better effectiveness today. It looks like Torres is starting. Still do not understand why coaches line up non-fit players. Why don't they keep unfit star players on the bench like W. Germany did in 1986 with Rummenigge, to bring them out in the second half to turn around difficult situations.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
July 2 Games and Updated Probabilities
From Javier...
Second day of football withdrawal syndrome and already the shakes are gone. Maybe football is not that addictive.
Now that there are only 8 teams left we thought it would be interesting to update the Simulator's estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Results are below:
Brazil is favoured to win the World Cup. Paradoxically because of Brazil's tough match on Friday Brazil's probabilities of reaching the semifinals are lower than Uruguay or Spain. But if Brazil beats Netherlands its probabilities of winning the tournament will increase dramatically. This illustrates the path dependence we mentioned in a previous entry.
Likewise Germany and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup are hurt by their suicidal match up on Saturday. The winner will emerge with enhanced probabilities of winning the tournament.
What a great match. Don't miss it, these Brazil - Netherlands games are a classic of the World Cup.
Uruguay should be able to overcome the young Ghanians. However Ghana showed a lot of spirit in the last game and will not be a pushover.
Second day of football withdrawal syndrome and already the shakes are gone. Maybe football is not that addictive.
Now that there are only 8 teams left we thought it would be interesting to update the Simulator's estimated probabilities of a 9999 iteration run. Results are below:
Brazil is favoured to win the World Cup. Paradoxically because of Brazil's tough match on Friday Brazil's probabilities of reaching the semifinals are lower than Uruguay or Spain. But if Brazil beats Netherlands its probabilities of winning the tournament will increase dramatically. This illustrates the path dependence we mentioned in a previous entry.
Likewise Germany and Argentina's probabilities of winning the World Cup are hurt by their suicidal match up on Saturday. The winner will emerge with enhanced probabilities of winning the tournament.
What a great match. Don't miss it, these Brazil - Netherlands games are a classic of the World Cup.
Uruguay should be able to overcome the young Ghanians. However Ghana showed a lot of spirit in the last game and will not be a pushover.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Football Withdrawal Syndrome Kicks In
From Javier...
Two full days ahead without matches. Get ready for the shivers of football withdrawal syndrome. What will we do? Well look at repetitions I guess and YouTube videos of best goals to date.
First let me say how relieved I am at Spain's performance tonight. In spite of playing one of the toughest defense in the world, the players kept their calm and maintained their strategy and tempo. Once the Portuguese were a goal behind from the billiard-like passing Spanish goal they really did not have an answer. I did not count a single shot on the Spanish goal from the 1-0. It must be so frustrating to be one goal behind and not be able to get possession. A few notes about the game:
Two full days ahead without matches. Get ready for the shivers of football withdrawal syndrome. What will we do? Well look at repetitions I guess and YouTube videos of best goals to date.
First let me say how relieved I am at Spain's performance tonight. In spite of playing one of the toughest defense in the world, the players kept their calm and maintained their strategy and tempo. Once the Portuguese were a goal behind from the billiard-like passing Spanish goal they really did not have an answer. I did not count a single shot on the Spanish goal from the 1-0. It must be so frustrating to be one goal behind and not be able to get possession. A few notes about the game:
- In a previous entry I speculated about Spain that the "mental toughness of this new generation is very different".... and this was proved tonight. While I was close to despair early in the second half imagining how tragedy would play out, these guys kept their cool, kept possession, kept their passing game. And when they were 1-0 up they did not lose focus, rather they even sharpened it more.
- The change of Llorente on for Torres was brilliant; it added that extra spice needed to wear down the Portuguese defense and make their chances of a mistake just that extra bit more probable..... and the Portuguese changes were a disaster.....Spanish coach definitely outperformed Portuguese coach tonight
- Much was made of the Portuguese defense, but the ability of the Spaniards to recover the ball quickly and frequently in threatening positions was admirable; the Portuguese were very frustrated
- Much has been said that the Spaniards have weak physical form and lose steam over the game; tonight I saw no problems with form and rather at the end the Spanish form was better than the Portuguese
- Spain had luck, all the luck it missed against Switzerland
- Still Spain has a lot of possession and not enough effectiveness
- Casillas seems a little bit shaky....they will test from 25/30 yards in the next game
- With hindsight, the Swiss medicine was the best pill that a Doctor could order for the hyped Spanish players - but only with hindsight!
So we have this weekend two big World Cup classics:
Argentina - Germany (just like 2006)
Netherlands - Brazil (a common feature of World Cups)
And two other games: Uruguay - Ghana and Spain - Paraguay.
Four of the teams speak Spanish. Not sure if that has any relevance, rather an indicator of how well South America is doing in this World Cup. Spain has never had it so good to make it to the semifinals...... well, that is what we thought in 2002 and crashed against the South Koreans. But if Spain plays like today and Paraguay plays like today there is no doubt Spain will make it. I favour Uruguay over Ghana, Argentina over Germany and Brazil over Netherlands. We will see what the Simulator says over the next two days.
In the meantime, go cold turkey!
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
June 29 Games
From Javier...
Third day of playoff games were played with the bad smell still lingering in the air of yesterday's refereeing disasters. Those kind of mistakes take away from the beauty of the game.
Netherlands and Brazil easily defeated Slovakia and Chile. Chile was supposed to be one of the surprises of the tournament. I guess sound defeats against Spain and Brazil show that Chile's victories over Honduras and Switzerland were overstated in their significance. The Slovaks left the World Cup with the pride of their historical victory over Italy.
Today's games according to the Simulator:
Paraguay meets Japan. Why does this have penalty shoot-out written all over it (no penalty shoot-outs to date).
Spain has a very tough match against Portugal. The Portuguese know the Spaniards very well and will make their progress difficult. Cristiano Ronaldo will be the key.
Third day of playoff games were played with the bad smell still lingering in the air of yesterday's refereeing disasters. Those kind of mistakes take away from the beauty of the game.
Netherlands and Brazil easily defeated Slovakia and Chile. Chile was supposed to be one of the surprises of the tournament. I guess sound defeats against Spain and Brazil show that Chile's victories over Honduras and Switzerland were overstated in their significance. The Slovaks left the World Cup with the pride of their historical victory over Italy.
Today's games according to the Simulator:
Paraguay meets Japan. Why does this have penalty shoot-out written all over it (no penalty shoot-outs to date).
Spain has a very tough match against Portugal. The Portuguese know the Spaniards very well and will make their progress difficult. Cristiano Ronaldo will be the key.
Monday, June 28, 2010
World Cup Diary June 27
From Sukhdev in South Africa....
On Friday I undertook the long journey by car from Port Elizabeth to Bloemfontain, which amounted to 700 kms. The scenery was amazing, going through lush greenery and driving through winding mountain roads. Every now and then I would see troops of monkeys crossing the roads, and breathtaking mountain views.
In Bloemfontain I met up with a number of mates, so now I am travelling with friends, which is nice though it was easy to meet people in South Africa. Both locals and other football fans have been very approachable.
The people in Bloemfontain were incredibly friendly, but the place was extremely cold. Unfortunately, the Switzerland vs Honduras game was a anticlimax to the day and the drive was the highlight. The ground was decidedly fuller in the second half than the first. I suspect the organisers allowed people in as the ground looked half empty. This had a knock on effect on the atmosphere. Apart from a small pocket of Hondurans cheering sporadically, the ground was fairly quiet. Even vuvuzelas sounds were dampened.
In contrast, the bars were a sea of red and loud singing and bell ringing could be heard from far outside the Waterfront mall.
On Saturday, we had another long drive, about 550 kms to Rustenburg. The scenery was a lot less impressive, but still interesting. After a few hundred kilometres I must admit, I was tired of driving.
Rustenburg is probably the worst organised place I have been to in South Africa. It was frustrating trying to navigate the different park 'n' rides, but it's still hard to get annoyed with the freindly staff, though they provided very little useful information.
The game, Ghana vs USA, unlike the day before, was a great highlight in the day. From the time we stepped onto the bus with Ghana and US fans trading chanting very loudly, to being in the ground right between Ghanian and US fans and a great game, the whole experience made all the frustrations worthwhile.
Today, Sunday, we drove to Johannesburg. I had my first experience in a fan park. The crowd was good, but most of the fans were people from various countries supporting the two teams playing, so the atmosphere was a little artificial. The place lacked the passion that real fans for a team provides.
But maybe I am biased, as the game I watched was England vs Germany. After that game and the later game also, how can FIFA continue to rule out TV replays for key game changing decisions. Saying that, the Germans looked too good for the English and probably deserved to go through. I can only hope we now let Capello go and get in a manager who understands our players, and doesn't insist on playing his own style.
I attended the second game, Argentina vs Mexico. Soccer City Stadium must be one of the best stadiums I have been to. It is steeply banked and sounds reverberate around. At times I couldn't hear my friends shouting at me right into my ear for the vuvuzelas.
The Argentines turned out in force. At the end the Argentines attacked in the first half, Argentine flags waved and fans jumped and chanted relentlessly. The passion was obvious. Just like in the England, there was a controversial decision on a goal. Argentina's first goal was clearly offside. The whole crowd saw it, and after texting a number of friends who were watching on TV, it was confirmed. Even the linesman seemed to have seen it, but the ref 'bottled it'.
So a few more teams are going home. So are England. However, I intend to keep enjoying the World Cup, though it may now feel like being at someone else's party.
On Friday I undertook the long journey by car from Port Elizabeth to Bloemfontain, which amounted to 700 kms. The scenery was amazing, going through lush greenery and driving through winding mountain roads. Every now and then I would see troops of monkeys crossing the roads, and breathtaking mountain views.
In Bloemfontain I met up with a number of mates, so now I am travelling with friends, which is nice though it was easy to meet people in South Africa. Both locals and other football fans have been very approachable.
The people in Bloemfontain were incredibly friendly, but the place was extremely cold. Unfortunately, the Switzerland vs Honduras game was a anticlimax to the day and the drive was the highlight. The ground was decidedly fuller in the second half than the first. I suspect the organisers allowed people in as the ground looked half empty. This had a knock on effect on the atmosphere. Apart from a small pocket of Hondurans cheering sporadically, the ground was fairly quiet. Even vuvuzelas sounds were dampened.
In contrast, the bars were a sea of red and loud singing and bell ringing could be heard from far outside the Waterfront mall.
On Saturday, we had another long drive, about 550 kms to Rustenburg. The scenery was a lot less impressive, but still interesting. After a few hundred kilometres I must admit, I was tired of driving.
Rustenburg is probably the worst organised place I have been to in South Africa. It was frustrating trying to navigate the different park 'n' rides, but it's still hard to get annoyed with the freindly staff, though they provided very little useful information.
The game, Ghana vs USA, unlike the day before, was a great highlight in the day. From the time we stepped onto the bus with Ghana and US fans trading chanting very loudly, to being in the ground right between Ghanian and US fans and a great game, the whole experience made all the frustrations worthwhile.
Today, Sunday, we drove to Johannesburg. I had my first experience in a fan park. The crowd was good, but most of the fans were people from various countries supporting the two teams playing, so the atmosphere was a little artificial. The place lacked the passion that real fans for a team provides.
But maybe I am biased, as the game I watched was England vs Germany. After that game and the later game also, how can FIFA continue to rule out TV replays for key game changing decisions. Saying that, the Germans looked too good for the English and probably deserved to go through. I can only hope we now let Capello go and get in a manager who understands our players, and doesn't insist on playing his own style.
I attended the second game, Argentina vs Mexico. Soccer City Stadium must be one of the best stadiums I have been to. It is steeply banked and sounds reverberate around. At times I couldn't hear my friends shouting at me right into my ear for the vuvuzelas.
The Argentines turned out in force. At the end the Argentines attacked in the first half, Argentine flags waved and fans jumped and chanted relentlessly. The passion was obvious. Just like in the England, there was a controversial decision on a goal. Argentina's first goal was clearly offside. The whole crowd saw it, and after texting a number of friends who were watching on TV, it was confirmed. Even the linesman seemed to have seen it, but the ref 'bottled it'.
So a few more teams are going home. So are England. However, I intend to keep enjoying the World Cup, though it may now feel like being at someone else's party.
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