Running Simulation with User Inputs

From Javier

Its easy to run the Isthmus Partners World Cup Simulator using your own inputs for team weightings. These are the steps:


(1) Go to the 'Setup' worksheet and change under the heading "Model Weighting" the cell next to "Model" from 100% to 0%


(2) In the range under "User Team Weightings" change the numbers for each team according to your own criteria. You need to make sure the total is 1000. One trick is to give your favourite team 80 or 100 and the weakest teams a score of 5, and then fill in between. Remember the average score per team is 31/32, so for each team scored above 32 you need you will need to put below average scores for other teams.


(3) In the table below are the estimated probabilities for each team of reaching different stages of the World Cup resulting from a 9999 iteration run using my own User Team Weightings and with 100% User Input weighting. The first column in the table below reflects my own input weighting for each team.




I have given Brazil the highest score, 100. I have assumed for Spain the second highest score with 78 and Germany third with 65. Between Brazil, Spain and Germany those three teams have an almost 50% chance of winning the World Cup, which to me seems fair, as I personally believe this World Cup is more open than previous tournaments.


I have given South Africa a relatively high score compared to its football history and rankings because of the home country advantage. I know that no home team has ever failed to progress to the second stage of a World Cup. South Africa has about a 1 in 40 chance of winning according to my inputs.


Please be mindful that the chances of winning the World Cup are not only dependent on a team's strength, but it is also influenced by "path dependency". Path dependency is one of those technical words that modellers like to use to look smart. But all it means in this context is that the chances of a team progressing are determined by the other teams it meets along its way to the final. So for example although Argentina and France have similar weightings, Argentina has a significantly higher chance of winning the World Cup because it has a theoretically easier Group Stage, which is why Argentina has a 83.7% chance of reaching the 2nd round compared to France's 74.8%. Observing France's group in the first stage it is not unreasonable to assume it has a 1 in 4 chance of being kicked out of the tournament in the first stage, like it was in World Cup 2002.


Another way to check the reasonableness of your estimates is to check head-to-head pairings using the "Score Generator" in the Isthmus Partners World Cup Simulator Dialog Box. The results of Brazil to Spain pairings are:
Brazil wins: 46%
Draw: 25%
Spain wins: 29%


I am comfortable with those probabilities of Brazil vs Spain. If I pair Brazil vs Australia then Brazil has a 65% chance of winning, 25% chance of drawing and 10% chance of losing. I am also OK with that. Spain vs Germany results in Spain having a 44% chance of winning, 24% chance of drawing and 32% chance of losing.


Play around with the user weightings and the Score Generator until you get results that are in your comfort zone. Remember each time you change User Inputs to "Run Distributions" in the Dialog Box.

Please post your assumptions and results as a comment, we want to see what you are coming out with!