Well, I guess it's about time that I chimed in. Javier and I don't always agree and that is evident from our views on football. I've run the simulator using 50% model and 50% user inputs. My user inputs are a little less "exact" than Javier's.
I have concentrated on batching teams. As Javier is Spanish, I guess he is being modest about Spain's chances, and with Xavi's supposedly playing with a calf injury and Torres' operation, maybe Javier is just being prudent or does not want to tempt fate. However, I think they should be favourites followed by Brazil, who also look fabulous.
Next I have batched England, France, Germany, Italy and Holland. All great teams, which on their day can win, so I think they should be equally weighted and the model can look towards history to sort them out. Next I add Argentina followed by Portugal. I would expect Argentina to be strong, but Maradona was definitely a better player than he is a manager. How can a team with such talent only barely qualify for the finals?
My surprise team is Ivory Coast who, with the likes of Drogba, Kalou and Toure, should do really well. So my simulation looks like:
Posts
Sukhdev continues to be sore with Maradona due to 1986. In fact, the English players are still wondering what hit them.
ReplyDeleteThe Hand of God is deserved taking into account Sheldon's lazy goal exit. And the Goal of the Century is just superb. The English just cannot get over it, in spite of having a fake penalty in their favour in England - Argentina of 2002.